{"locations":[{"code":"SMR","name":"San Marino","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SMR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.82 in 1950 → 1.15 in 2023 (−59%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1975, below 1.5 since 2009. The trend broke around 1973 and 1983: −0.02 → −0.1 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.821,"last":1.149,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2009,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.0181,"slope_after":-0.101},{"year":1983,"slope_before":-0.101,"slope_after":0.000528}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.26k in 1950 → 0.2k in 2023 (−22%). Peak: 0.35k in 2001; the latest value is 43% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 2008: 0k → 0k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.255,"last":0.2,"peak":{"year":2001,"value":0.348},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.00086,"slope_after":0.00426},{"year":2008,"slope_before":0.00426,"slope_after":-0.00916}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 97.4% in 2024 (+97 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2016, above 90% since 2022. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 1.4% → 50.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":97.3522,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":1.42,"end":50.8348}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 48.9% in 1960 → 97.2% in 2025 (+48 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1962, above 75% since 1977. The trend broke around 1969 and 1984: +1.1 → +2.1 → +0.22 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":48.9,"last":97.187,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1962,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1977,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":1.06,"slope_after":2.13},{"year":1984,"slope_before":2.13,"slope_after":0.219}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 66,923 PPP dollars in 1997 → 70,952 PPP dollars in 2023 (+6%). Peak: 86,785 PPP dollars in 2007; the latest value is 18% lower. The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +1,557 → −5,233 → +1,254 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1997,"to":2023,"first":66923.0326,"last":70951.792,"peak":{"year":2007,"value":86785.021},"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":1560,"slope_after":-5230},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-5230,"slope_after":1250}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1972–1982: 2.29 → 1.30. Over the same years: births 0.31k → 0.22k; urban share 63.8% → 85.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":2.286,"end":1.304,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":0.31,"end":0.224},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":63.8161,"end":85.3956},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.48 → 1.15; births 0.33k → 0.2k; internet 97.3% (2023); urban share 97.1% → 97.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 58,468 PPP dollars → 70,952 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.483,"end":1.149,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.329,"end":0.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":2023,"value":97.3364},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":97.1,"end":97.1317},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":58467.9789,"end":70951.792}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.33); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.93). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.327,"r_changes":0.928,"effective_pairs_changes":57,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 23 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.13); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":23,"r_levels":-0.131,"r_changes":0.126,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.28).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.951,"r_changes":-0.277,"effective_pairs_changes":57,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1997–2023, 27 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.42); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1997,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":0.424,"r_changes":0.231,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +0.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.148,"actual":1.149,"gap_pct":0.09}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":0.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.15, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.149,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.29 (+13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.43 (+25% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.93.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.149},"values":{"2050":1.294,"2100":1.433},"low_2100":0.933}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +0.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.199,"actual":0.2,"gap_pct":0.5}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":0.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.24k (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.24k (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.2},"values":{"2050":0.235,"2100":0.235},"low_2100":0.101}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SMR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}