{"locations":[{"code":"SLE","name":"Sierra Leone","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SLE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.09 in 1950 → 3.79 in 2023 (−38%). Peak: 6.61 in 1987; the latest value is 43% lower. The trend broke around 1978 and 1999: +0.02 → 0 → −0.12 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.09,"last":3.791,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":6.609},"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.0217,"slope_after":-0.00275},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.00275,"slope_after":-0.117}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 95.6k in 1950 → 259k in 2023 (×2.7). The trend broke around 2010: change slowed down (+2.89k → +1.23k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":95.63,"last":258.9,"breaks":[{"year":2010,"slope_before":2.89,"slope_after":1.23}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 25.1% in 2024 (+25 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 9.3% → 21.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":25.105,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":9.2971,"end":21.5088}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.4% in 1960 → 45.9% in 2025 (+28 pp). The trend broke around 1979 and 2009: +0.7 → +0.25 → +0.48 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.4313,"last":45.9268,"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":0.698,"slope_after":0.252},{"year":2009,"slope_before":0.252,"slope_after":0.483}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,704 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,176 PPP dollars in 2025 (+17%). Low: 1,749 PPP dollars in 2001; +82% since then. The trend broke around 1998 and 2013: −105 → +61 → +24 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2703.5992,"last":3176.2368,"trough":{"year":2001,"value":1749.3509},"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":-105,"slope_after":60.8},{"year":2013,"slope_before":60.8,"slope_after":24.2}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2006–2016: 5.74 → 4.47. Over the same years: births 235k → 246k; internet 0.2% → 7.7%; urban share 37.2% → 41.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,343 PPP dollars → 2,732 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":5.737,"end":4.466,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":235.1,"end":246.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":0.2277,"end":7.6801},{"id":"urban_population","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":37.1704,"end":41.2294},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2006,"to":2016,"start":2342.7546,"end":2732.2609}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.87 → 3.79; births 246k → 259k; internet 4% → 23.7%; urban share 39.9% → 44.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,125 PPP dollars → 3,035 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.873,"end":3.791,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":245.7,"end":258.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4,"end":23.7136},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.8916,"end":44.8093},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3124.7283,"end":3034.9461}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.64); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.643,"r_changes":0.158,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.22). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.87,"r_changes":0.224,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.22).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.682,"r_changes":-0.217,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.803,"r_changes":-0.206,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.196,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":3.22},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.28,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":-17.97},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.19,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":-16.55},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.738,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":-24.52},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.738,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":-24.52},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.532,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":-4.44},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.252,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":1.86},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.369,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":-0.87},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.277,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.319,"actual":4.331,"gap_pct":0.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.791,"actual":3.791,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.87,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.79) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.791,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.79, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.791,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.45 (−35% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.87 (−51% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.37.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.791},"values":{"2050":2.451,"2100":1.871},"low_2100":1.371}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":252.409,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":-0.89},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":315.573,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":-20.73},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":279.246,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":-10.41},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":312.071,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":-19.84},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":312.227,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":-19.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":247.04,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":1.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":229.676,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":8.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":226.367,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":10.52},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":232.685,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":7.51},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":261.516,"actual":250.17,"gap_pct":-4.34},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":266.774,"actual":258.9,"gap_pct":-2.95}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-2.95,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (259k) already around 2004: reality is 19 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":258.9,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2004,"years":19,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (259k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":258.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 261k (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 199k (−23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 86.5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":258.9},"values":{"2050":260.8,"2100":199},"low_2100":86.5}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SLE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}