{"locations":[{"code":"SLB","name":"Solomon Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SLB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.15 in 1950 → 3.56 in 2023 (−50%). The trend broke around 1979 and 2001: −0.01 → −0.1 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.15,"last":3.557,"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.00825,"slope_after":-0.101},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.101,"slope_after":-0.0435}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 4.87k in 1950 → 21.6k in 2023 (×4.4).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.869,"last":21.55}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 29% in 2024 (+29 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 11% → 26%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":29.0407,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":11.0009,"end":26.0379}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 2.7% in 1960 → 31.3% in 2025 (+29 pp). The trend broke around 2006: change sped up (+0.23 → +0.74 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":2.7171,"last":31.3093,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":0.231,"slope_after":0.739}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,353 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,382 PPP dollars in 2025 (+1%). Peak: 2,997 PPP dollars in 1995; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 2004 and 2013: −42 → +67 → −43 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2352.7006,"last":2382.1315,"peak":{"year":1995,"value":2996.6556},"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":-42,"slope_after":66.8},{"year":2013,"slope_before":66.8,"slope_after":-42.5}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1982–1992: 6.64 → 5.51. Over the same years: births 10.6k → 13.2k; urban share 11.6% → 14.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,645 PPP dollars (1992); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":6.64,"end":5.509,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":10.57,"end":13.22},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":11.5884,"end":14.1156},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1992,"value":2644.8394}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.33 → 3.56; births 19.3k → 21.6k; internet 8% → 28.7%; urban share 22.1% → 30%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,784 PPP dollars → 2,340 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.325,"end":3.557,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19.33,"end":21.55},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":8,"end":28.6724},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.1027,"end":30.0089},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2783.9486,"end":2339.8747}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.33). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.979,"r_changes":0.328,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.44). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.831,"r_changes":-0.437,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.43). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.94,"r_changes":0.433,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.19); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.19,"r_changes":0.297,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +7.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.1,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":29.09},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.23,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":-5.39},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.948,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":35.75},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.968,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":34.83},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.108,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":28.76},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.143,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":27.32},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.725,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":7.43},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.765,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":6.29},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.763,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":6.35},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.77,"actual":4.0018,"gap_pct":6.15},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.87,"actual":3.557,"gap_pct":-8.09}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":7.43,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.56) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.557,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.56, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.557,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.61 (−27% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.96 (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.46.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.557},"values":{"2050":2.611,"2100":1.956},"low_2100":1.456}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.891,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":15.38},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.592,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":-16.06},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.59,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":24.43},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.285,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":35.05},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.659,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":31.83},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.971,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":29.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.094,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":14.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.401,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":18.63},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.079,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":20.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.252,"actual":20.643,"gap_pct":19.66},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":21.398,"actual":21.55,"gap_pct":0.71}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":19.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (21.6k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":21.55,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (21.6k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":21.55,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 25.8k (+20% vs 2023), 2100 — 22.9k (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 10.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":21.55},"values":{"2050":25.82,"2100":22.86},"low_2100":10.55}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SLB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}