{"locations":[{"code":"SHN","name":"Saint Helena","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SHN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.62 in 1950 → 1.64 in 2023 (−71%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1991. The trend broke around 1964 and 1986: −0.04 → −0.14 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.621,"last":1.636,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1991,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":-0.0413,"slope_after":-0.138},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.138,"slope_after":-0.0141}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.2k in 1950 → 0.04k in 2023 (−81%). The trend broke around 1988 and 2005: 0k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.2,"last":0.039,"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":-0.00143,"slope_after":-0.00478},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.00478,"slope_after":-0.000506}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 4.86 → 2.86. Over the same years: births 0.17k → 0.14k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":4.863,"end":2.858,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":0.171,"end":0.138}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.69 → 1.64; births 0.05k → 0.04k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.692,"end":1.636,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.049,"end":0.039}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.88,"r_changes":0.342,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.636,"actual":1.636,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.63 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.64 (0% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.14.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.636},"values":{"2050":1.63,"2100":1.636},"low_2100":1.136}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.039,"actual":0.039,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.03k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.02k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.039},"values":{"2050":0.034,"2100":0.022},"low_2100":0.007}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SHN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}