{"locations":[{"code":"SGP","name":"Singapore","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SGP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.23 in 1950 → 0.87 in 2025 (−86%). Peak: 6.44 in 1956; the latest value is 86% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1975, below 1.5 since 1991, below 1.0 since 2015. The trend broke around 1957 and 1977: +0.03 → −0.24 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.225,"last":0.87,"peak":{"year":1956,"value":6.444},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1991,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":0.0322,"slope_after":-0.237},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.237,"slope_after":-0.0191}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 44.9k in 1950 → 29.9k in 2025 (−34%). Peak: 61.8k in 1958; the latest value is 52% lower. The trend broke around 1958 and 1970: +2.36k → −1.39k → −0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":44.93,"last":29.864,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":61.78},"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":2.36,"slope_after":-1.39},{"year":1970,"slope_before":-1.39,"slope_after":-0.0215}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2003, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 24.2% → 62%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":94.3776,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":24.2,"end":62}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 45,961 PPP dollars in 1990 → 139,593 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":45961.0598,"last":139592.6122}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1959–1969: 6.12 → 3.22. Over the same years: births 61.5k → 45.1k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1959,"to":1969,"start":6.121,"end":3.222,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1959,"to":1969,"start":61.53,"end":45.1},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1969,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 0.98 → 0.87; births 47.6k → 29.9k; internet 79% → 94.4%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 109,894 PPP dollars → 139,593 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":0.977,"end":0.87,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":47.63,"end":29.864},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":79.013,"end":94.3776},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":109894.0413,"end":139592.6122}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.65); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.72). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.647,"r_changes":0.717,"effective_pairs_changes":56,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.972,"r_changes":-0.096,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.89,"r_changes":0.167,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −32%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-50.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.65,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-42.96},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-35.45},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.51,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-37.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.385,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-32.04},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.385,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-32.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.554,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-39.43},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.326,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-29.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.287,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-26.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.283,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-26.64},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.244,"actual":0.9412,"gap_pct":-24.34},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.06,"actual":0.87,"gap_pct":-17.92}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-32.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.15 (+32% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.36 (+57% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.86.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.87},"values":{"2050":1.152,"2100":1.363},"low_2100":0.863}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":48.575,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-13.35},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":51.897,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-18.89},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":45.739,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-7.97},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":48.815,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-13.77},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":44.791,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-6.03},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":46.924,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-10.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.039,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-24.89},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.666,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-30.62},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":50.731,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-17.03},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":50.078,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-15.95},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":49.722,"actual":42.092,"gap_pct":-15.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":42.999,"actual":29.864,"gap_pct":-30.55}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (29.9k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":29.864,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (29.9k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":29.864,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 29.9k, 40% below the UN 2024 medium variant (49.8k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":49.84,"actual_births_k":29.864,"gap_pct":-40.1,"un_lower95_births_k":39.39,"below_lower95":true,"source":"Singapore Department of Statistics / ICA, SingStat Table M810091 'Births And Fertility Rates, Annual' (last updated 03/06/2026)","source_url":"https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/api/table/tabledata/M810091"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 32.1k (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 27.5k (−8% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 9.09k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":29.864},"values":{"2050":32.05,"2100":27.46},"low_2100":9.087}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SGP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}