{"locations":[{"code":"SEN","name":"Senegal","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SEN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.79 in 1950 → 3.82 in 2023 (−44%). Peak: 7.29 in 1980; the latest value is 48% lower. The trend broke around 1981 and 1994: +0.02 → −0.11 → −0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.787,"last":3.818,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":7.292},"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.0197,"slope_after":-0.114},{"year":1994,"slope_before":-0.114,"slope_after":-0.0654}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 131k in 1950 → 532k in 2023 (×4.1). The trend broke around 2013: change slowed down (+8.45k → +2.08k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":131.2,"last":531.9,"breaks":[{"year":2013,"slope_before":8.45,"slope_after":2.08}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 60.1% in 2024 (+60 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2012, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 21.7% → 53.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":60.1178,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":21.7,"end":53.3088}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 22.6% in 1960 → 55.8% in 2025 (+33 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2020. The trend broke around 1974 and 2013: +0.89 → +0.25 → +0.98 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":22.6144,"last":55.7672,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.892,"slope_after":0.255},{"year":2013,"slope_before":0.255,"slope_after":0.98}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,923 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,669 PPP dollars in 2025 (+60%). Low: 2,758 PPP dollars in 1994; +69% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2014: +0.9 → +36 → +95 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2923.3441,"last":4668.5417,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":2757.8609},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.898,"slope_after":36},{"year":2014,"slope_before":36,"slope_after":94.7}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 5.13 → 3.86. Over the same years: births 500k → 520k; internet 10.8% → 56.8%; urban share 44.5% → 53.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,405 PPP dollars → 4,229 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":5.129,"end":3.864,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":499.6,"end":520},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":10.8,"end":56.8283},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":44.536,"end":53.4435},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":3405.1086,"end":4228.7338}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.74). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.896,"r_changes":0.742,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.93,"r_changes":-0.578,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.879,"r_changes":0.195,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.963,"r_changes":-0.159,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.73,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":17.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.72,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":17.78},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.357,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":30.52},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.424,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":27.97},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.6,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":21.71},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.936,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":11.32},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.223,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":3.76},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.62,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":-5.16},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.828,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":-9.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.647,"actual":4.3816,"gap_pct":-5.71},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.252,"actual":3.818,"gap_pct":-10.21}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":11.32,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.82) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.818,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.82, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.818,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.82 (−26% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.05 (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.55.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.818},"values":{"2050":2.821,"2100":2.048},"low_2100":1.548}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":441.868,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":14.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":432.727,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":16.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":387.039,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":30.18},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":441.09,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":14.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":453.356,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":11.14},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":489.706,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":2.89},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":502.718,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":0.22},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":566.17,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":-11.01},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":582.555,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":-13.51},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":556.309,"actual":503.84,"gap_pct":-9.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":562.482,"actual":531.9,"gap_pct":-5.44}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.89,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (532k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":531.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 639k (+20% vs 2023), 2100 — 618k (+16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 297k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":531.9},"values":{"2050":639.1,"2100":618.1},"low_2100":297.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SEN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}