{"locations":[{"code":"SAU","name":"Saudi Arabia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SAU/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.58 in 1950 → 2.28 in 2023 (−70%). The trend broke around 1980 and 2006: −0.01 → −0.16 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.577,"last":2.28,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.00962,"slope_after":-0.164},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.164,"slope_after":-0.0552}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 86.7k in 1950 → 546k in 2023 (×6.3). Peak: 610k in 2017; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1987: +4.36k → +13.5k → +5.3k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":86.68,"last":546,"peak":{"year":2017,"value":610.2},"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":4.36,"slope_after":13.5},{"year":1987,"slope_before":13.5,"slope_after":5.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 100% in 2024 (+100 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2012, above 90% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 54% → 94.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":100,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":54,"end":94.1756}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 31.4% in 1960 → 84.6% in 2025 (+53 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1971, above 75% since 1988. The trend broke around 1980 and 1990: +1.8 → +1.1 → +0.2 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":31.4439,"last":84.6123,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1971,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1988,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":1.84,"slope_after":1.06},{"year":1990,"slope_before":1.06,"slope_after":0.202}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 65,197 PPP dollars in 1990 → 63,051 PPP dollars in 2025 (−3%). Low: 50,372 PPP dollars in 2002; +25% since then. The trend broke around 2002: direction reversed (−1,336 → +540 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":65196.5734,"last":63051.0467,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":50371.9783},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":-1340,"slope_after":540}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1994–2004: 5.16 → 3.26. Over the same years: births 426k → 418k; internet 0% → 10.2%; urban share 78.6% → 80.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 62,404 PPP dollars → 54,197 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":5.161,"end":3.264,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":426.1,"end":418.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":1995,"to":2004,"start":0.011,"end":10.2345},{"id":"urban_population","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":78.6482,"end":80.7542},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":62403.6937,"end":54196.5514}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.67 → 2.28; births 553k → 546k; internet 60.5% → 100%; urban share 82.6% → 84.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 57,998 PPP dollars → 64,482 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.67,"end":2.28,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":552.5,"end":546},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":60.5,"end":100},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":82.6072,"end":84.2962},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57998.4645,"end":64481.8442}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.49).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.928,"r_changes":0.485,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.33). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.844,"r_changes":0.335,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.48). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.83,"r_changes":0.479,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.28); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.284,"r_changes":0.086,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.523,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":-26.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.05,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":-36.15},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.013,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":-14.17},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.835,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":-8.78},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.686,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":-3.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.56,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":1.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.369,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":9.16},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.43,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":6.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.593,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":-0.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.481,"actual":2.586,"gap_pct":4.23},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.357,"actual":2.28,"gap_pct":-3.27}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.28, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.28,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (2.28) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.28,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.88 (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−25% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.28},"values":{"2050":1.875,"2100":1.718},"low_2100":1.218}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":859.546,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-32.3},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":970.611,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-40.05},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":794.211,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-26.73},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":728.469,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-20.12},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":648.558,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-10.28},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":618.134,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-5.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":637.347,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-8.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":530.516,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":9.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":610.809,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-4.73},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":631.857,"actual":581.9,"gap_pct":-7.91},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":606.692,"actual":546,"gap_pct":-10}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-10,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (546k) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":546,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (546k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":546,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 617k (+13% vs 2023), 2100 — 795k (+46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 404k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":546},"values":{"2050":616.9,"2100":795.1},"low_2100":404}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SAU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}