{"locations":[{"code":"RUS","name":"Russia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/RUS/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.93 in 1950 → 1.37 in 2025 (−53%). Low: 1.18 in 1999; +16% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1989, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 2003 and 2014: −0.03 → +0.05 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.926,"last":1.374,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":1.183},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1989,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.0295,"slope_after":0.0464},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.0464,"slope_after":-0.0386}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.89M in 1950 → 1.22M in 2024 (−58%). The trend broke around 1988 and 1994: −15.5k → −118k → +7.98k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2885,"last":1222.408,"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":-15.5,"slope_after":-118},{"year":1994,"slope_before":-118,"slope_after":7.98}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2022. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 24.7% → 66%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":94.365,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":24.66,"end":66}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 54.1% in 1960 → 75.3% in 2025 (+21 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 2024. The trend broke around 1977 and 1986: +0.83 → +0.47 → +0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":54.1416,"last":75.2507,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.834,"slope_after":0.473},{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.473,"slope_after":0.0542}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 29,644 PPP dollars in 1990 → 42,358 PPP dollars in 2025 (+43%). Low: 17,053 PPP dollars in 1998; +148% since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2008: −1,906 → +1,576 → +465 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":29643.5957,"last":42357.9883,"trough":{"year":1998,"value":17052.7559},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-1910,"slope_after":1580},{"year":2008,"slope_before":1580,"slope_after":465}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 2.25 → 1.24. Over the same years: births 2.55M → 1.29M; internet 0.5% (1997); urban share 72.9% → 73.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,977 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":2.249,"end":1.242,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":2552,"end":1294},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.473},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":72.8753,"end":73.1157},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":17977.3516}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.79 → 1.37; births 1.94M → 1.22M; internet 70.1% → 94.4%; urban share 74.3% → 75.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 35,037 PPP dollars → 42,358 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.79,"end":1.374,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":1935,"end":1222.408},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":70.0992,"end":94.365},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":74.2759,"end":75.2507},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":35037.1523,"end":42357.9883}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.963,"r_changes":0.941,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.50). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":34,"r_levels":0.536,"r_changes":0.501,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.718,"r_changes":0.3,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.57); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.44).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.567,"r_changes":0.445,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.66,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-12.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.357,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":6.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.37,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":5.77},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.579,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-8.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.463,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-0.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.576,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-8.05},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.674,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-13.43},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.656,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-12.49},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-17.66},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-19.04},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.825,"actual":1.4491,"gap_pct":-20.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.55,"actual":1.374,"gap_pct":-11.35}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-11.92,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.37) already around 2023: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.374,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2023,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (1.37) already around 2013: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.374,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.54 (+12% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.59 (+16% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.09.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.374},"values":{"2050":1.54,"2100":1.592},"low_2100":1.092}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1380.871,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":21.5},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1128.466,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":48.67},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1125.574,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":49.05},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1386.614,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":20.99},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1316.368,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":27.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1470.335,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":14.1},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1592.365,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":5.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1599.889,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":4.86},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1767.82,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":-5.1},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1780.602,"actual":1677.7,"gap_pct":-5.78},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1350.768,"actual":1222.408,"gap_pct":-9.5}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":14.1,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.22M) already around 2010: reality is 14 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1222.408,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":14,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.22M, 2024) only around 2074: reality is 50 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1222.408,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2074,"years":50,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 1.22M, 4% below the UN 2024 medium variant (1.27M).","data":{"year":2024,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":1270,"actual_births_k":1222.408,"gap_pct":-3.7,"un_lower95_births_k":1139,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Rosstat operational data EDN Jan-Dec 2024 (by date of civil registration); TFR: Russian Statistical Yearbook 2025","source_url":"https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/EDN_2024.rar"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.36M (+12% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.17M (−5% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 486k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1222.408},"values":{"2050":1364,"2100":1166},"low_2100":485.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=RUS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}