{"locations":[{"code":"REU","name":"Réunion","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/REU/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.96 in 1950 → 2.17 in 2023 (−69%). The trend broke around 1965 and 1980: −0.08 → −0.22 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.963,"last":2.174,"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":-0.075,"slope_after":-0.219},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.219,"slope_after":-0.0103}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 12.6k in 1950 → 12k in 2023 (−5%). Peak: 16.6k in 1965; the latest value is 28% lower. The trend broke around 1997 and 2004: −0.04k → +0.42k → −0.23k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":12.57,"last":12,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":16.63},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.0427,"slope_after":0.419},{"year":2004,"slope_before":0.419,"slope_after":-0.228}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 6.15 → 3.65. Over the same years: births 16.6k → 14.5k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":6.152,"end":3.647,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":16.63,"end":14.54}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.22 → 2.17; births 13.6k → 12k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.216,"end":2.174,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.62,"end":12}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.41); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.87). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.407,"r_changes":0.875,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":15.09},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":15.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.003,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":9.17},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.207,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":-0.92},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.145,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":1.94},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.223,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":-1.63},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.126,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":2.86},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.113,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":3.49},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.121,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":3.1},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.273,"actual":2.1867,"gap_pct":-3.8},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.199,"actual":2.174,"gap_pct":-1.14}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.86,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (2.17) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.174,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.17, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.174,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.91 (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.174},"values":{"2050":1.908,"2100":1.784},"low_2100":1.284}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.978,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":4.81},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.512,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":0.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.221,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-5.05},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.606,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-14.05},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.131,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-11.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.635,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-14.22},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.21,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-11.65},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.098,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-10.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.501,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.106,"actual":12.554,"gap_pct":-4.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":13.906,"actual":12,"gap_pct":-13.71}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-10.95,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (12k) already around 2002: reality is 21 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":12,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2002,"years":21,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 10.6k (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 7.58k (−37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.89k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":12},"values":{"2050":10.62,"2100":7.577},"low_2100":2.888}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=REU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}