{"locations":[{"code":"PYF","name":"French Polynesia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PYF/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.47 in 1950 → 1.50 in 2023 (−73%). Peak: 6.00 in 1955; the latest value is 75% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1967 and 1979: +0.02 → −0.18 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.474,"last":1.501,"peak":{"year":1955,"value":6.003},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":0.023,"slope_after":-0.178},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.178,"slope_after":-0.0609}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.47k in 1950 → 3.07k in 2023 (+24%). Peak: 6.1k in 1988; the latest value is 50% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2013: +0.08k → −0.05k → −0.14k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.473,"last":3.066,"peak":{"year":1988,"value":6.101},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.0762,"slope_after":-0.0544},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-0.0544,"slope_after":-0.145}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 72.7% in 2017 (+73 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 21.5% → 49%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":72.7039,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":21.5422,"end":49}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 42.3% in 1960 → 61.8% in 2025 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1968. The trend broke around 1976 and 1999: +1.1 → −0.15 → +0.28 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":42.2907,"last":61.7584,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1968,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":1.11,"slope_after":-0.153},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.153,"slope_after":0.276}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1969–1979: 5.82 → 3.94. Over the same years: births 4.31k → 4.49k; urban share 52.2% → 59.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":5.818,"end":3.941,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":4.313,"end":4.487},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":52.1688,"end":59.1214}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.94 → 1.50; births 4.32k → 3.07k; internet 56.8% (2013); urban share 61.6% → 61.7%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.937,"end":1.501,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.317,"end":3.066},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":56.8},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":61.613,"end":61.6967}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.33); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.67). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.334,"r_changes":0.665,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 23 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":23,"r_levels":-0.851,"r_changes":0.174,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.786,"r_changes":0.135,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-20.33},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-20.33},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.092,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-20.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.073,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-19.3},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.073,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-19.3},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.048,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-18.31},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.922,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-12.96},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.985,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-15.72},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.989,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-15.89},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.99,"actual":1.673,"gap_pct":-15.93},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.681,"actual":1.501,"gap_pct":-10.71}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.50, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.501,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.50, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.501,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.50 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.54 (+3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.04.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.501},"values":{"2050":1.497,"2100":1.544},"low_2100":1.044}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.064,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-27.98},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.795,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-23.94},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.792,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-23.89},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.892,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-25.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.846,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-24.74},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.746,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-23.16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.439,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-17.84},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.478,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-18.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.475,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-18.5},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.289,"actual":3.647,"gap_pct":-14.97},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.817,"actual":3.066,"gap_pct":-19.68}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-23.16,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (3.07k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.066,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.07k, 2023) only around 2055: reality is 32 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.066,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2055,"years":32,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.22k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.2k (−61% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.33k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.066},"values":{"2050":2.218,"2100":1.198},"low_2100":0.326}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PYF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}