{"locations":[{"code":"PRY","name":"Paraguay","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PRY/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.49 in 1950 → 2.42 in 2023 (−63%). The trend broke around 1991 and 2006: −0.06 → −0.11 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.49,"last":2.422,"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.056,"slope_after":-0.115},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.115,"slope_after":-0.0236}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 66.9k in 1950 → 137k in 2023 (+104%). The trend broke around 1976 and 1987: +1.04k → +3.8k → −0.06k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":66.92,"last":136.8,"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":1.04,"slope_after":3.8},{"year":1987,"slope_before":3.8,"slope_after":-0.0637}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 81.6% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 29.3% → 61.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":81.5781,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":29.34,"end":61.0758}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 35.6% in 1960 → 70.4% in 2025 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1990. The trend broke around 1977 and 1995: +0.21 → +0.85 → +0.47 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":35.5514,"last":70.3898,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1990,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.211,"slope_after":0.849},{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.849,"slope_after":0.466}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 9,961 PPP dollars in 1990 → 17,246 PPP dollars in 2025 (+73%). Low: 9,610 PPP dollars in 2002; +79% since then. The trend broke around 2005 and 2015: −9.9 → +436 → +189 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":9961.2217,"last":17245.8458,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":9609.5336},"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":-9.88,"slope_after":436},{"year":2015,"slope_before":436,"slope_after":189}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1992–2002: 4.40 → 3.23. Over the same years: births 142k → 132k; internet 1.8% (2002); urban share 51.8% → 58.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,947 PPP dollars → 9,610 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":4.402,"end":3.233,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":141.5,"end":132.1},{"id":"internet_users","year":2002,"value":1.795},{"id":"urban_population","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":51.8012,"end":58.309},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":9947.1644,"end":9609.5336}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.64 → 2.42; births 134k → 137k; internet 36.9% → 78.1%; urban share 60.2% → 69.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,699 PPP dollars → 15,832 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.636,"end":2.422,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":134.4,"end":136.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":36.9,"end":78.0948},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":60.2375,"end":69.3466},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13698.9722,"end":15831.585}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.60). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.865,"r_changes":0.6,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.75,"r_changes":0.548,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.972,"r_changes":0.087,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.749,"r_changes":0.354,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.993,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":-13.99},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.994,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":-14.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.994,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":-14.01},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.905,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":-11.38},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.513,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":2.44},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.514,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":2.4},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.669,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":-3.54},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.72,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":-5.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.446,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":5.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.446,"actual":2.5744,"gap_pct":5.25},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.422,"actual":2.422,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.54,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.42, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.422,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (2.42) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.422,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.02 (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.422},"values":{"2050":2.019,"2100":1.782},"low_2100":1.282}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":198.209,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-29.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":198.21,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-29.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":195.86,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-28.49},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":187.947,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-25.48},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.185,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-8.57},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.246,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-8.61},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":162.461,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-13.79},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":165.265,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-15.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":142.002,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-1.37},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":141.731,"actual":140.05,"gap_pct":-1.19},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":137.368,"actual":136.8,"gap_pct":-0.41}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-13.79,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection expected today's level (137k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":136.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (137k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":136.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 124k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 90k (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 34.2k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":136.8},"values":{"2050":124,"2100":89.95},"low_2100":34.24}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PRY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}