{"locations":[{"code":"PRT","name":"Portugal","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PRT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.16 in 1950 → 1.41 in 2024 (−55%). Low: 1.21 in 2013; +16% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1982, below 1.5 since 2024. The trend broke around 1969 and 1989: 0 → −0.08 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":3.158,"last":1.41,"trough":{"year":2013,"value":1.213},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1982,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.00291,"slope_after":-0.0837},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0837,"slope_after":-0.00454}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 206k in 1950 → 87.8k in 2025 (−57%). Peak: 218k in 1962; the latest value is 60% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1989: +1.23k → −3.58k → −1.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":205.6,"last":87.764,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":218.1},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":1.23,"slope_after":-3.58},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-3.58,"slope_after":-1.16}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 88.5% in 2024 (+88 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2010. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 19.4% → 42.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":88.487,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":19.37,"end":42.09}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 30.8% in 1960 → 61.5% in 2025 (+31 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1994. The trend broke around 2010: direction reversed (+0.67 → 0 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":30.8413,"last":61.4953,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1994,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2010,"slope_before":0.668,"slope_after":-0.00259}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 27,191 PPP dollars in 1990 → 42,577 PPP dollars in 2025 (+57%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +622 → −519 → +660 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":27190.572,"last":42576.814,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":622,"slope_after":-519},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-519,"slope_after":660}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1976–1986: 2.81 → 1.66. Over the same years: births 187k → 125k; urban share 38.7% → 45.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":2.807,"end":1.663,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":187.2,"end":124.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":38.717,"end":45.1701},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 1.23 → 1.41; births 82.2k → 84.6k; internet 64.6% → 88.5%; urban share 61.1% → 61.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 35,097 PPP dollars → 42,228 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.23,"end":1.41,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":82.18,"end":84.642},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":64.5924,"end":88.487},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":61.1395,"end":61.3282},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":35097.4098,"end":42228.158}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.982,"r_changes":0.925,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.58); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.576,"r_changes":-0.074,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.932,"r_changes":-0.17,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.38); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.41).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.376,"r_changes":0.406,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.5,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":-7.75},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.493,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":-7.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.496,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":-7.51},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.573,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":-12.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.528,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":-9.44},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.44,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":-3.91},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.301,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":6.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.325,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":4.43},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.24,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":11.59},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.241,"actual":1.3837,"gap_pct":11.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.375,"actual":1.41,"gap_pct":2.55}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.91,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected this level (1.41) already around 2014: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.41,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.41, 2024) only around 2036: reality is 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.41,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2036,"years":12,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.57 (+12% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.61 (+14% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.41},"values":{"2050":1.573,"2100":1.61},"low_2100":1.11}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.66,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":2.63},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":87.644,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":-4.38},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":87.982,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":-4.74},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":99.234,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":-15.54},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":95.963,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":-12.67},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":89.506,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":-6.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":80.463,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":4.16},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.881,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":2.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":71.895,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":16.57},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":71.833,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":16.67},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.634,"actual":83.8088,"gap_pct":7.95},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":78.392,"actual":87.764,"gap_pct":11.96}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.49,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 87.8k, 3% above the UN 2024 medium variant (85.7k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":85.66,"actual_births_k":87.764,"gap_pct":2.5,"un_lower95_births_k":74.19,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=PT"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 82.6k (−6% vs 2025), 2100 — 78.4k (−11% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 34.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":87.764},"values":{"2050":82.57,"2100":78.39},"low_2100":34.63}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PRT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}