{"locations":[{"code":"PRK","name":"North Korea","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PRK/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.99 in 1950 → 1.78 in 2023 (−64%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1996. The trend broke around 1968 and 1995: +0.01 → −0.06 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.994,"last":1.78,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1996,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.0128,"slope_after":-0.063},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-0.063,"slope_after":-0.0082}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 452k in 1950 → 342k in 2023 (−24%). Peak: 549k in 1967; the latest value is 38% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 1976: +12.5k → −21.4k → −1.42k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":451.5,"last":342,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":548.7},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":12.5,"slope_after":-21.4},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-21.4,"slope_after":-1.42}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 0% in 2004 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2004,"first":0,"last":0}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 40.6% in 1960 → 64.2% in 2025 (+24 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1967. The trend broke around 1971: change slowed down (+1.4 → +0.12 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":40.6,"last":64.1898,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1967,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":1.37,"slope_after":0.118}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1950–1960: 4.99 → 3.57. Over the same years: births 452k → 409k; urban share 40.6% (1960); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":4.994,"end":3.568,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":451.5,"end":408.5},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1960,"value":40.6}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.88 → 1.78; births 338k → 342k; urban share 60.9% → 63.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.877,"end":1.78,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":338.3,"end":342},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":60.8843,"end":63.5382}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.96). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.537,"r_changes":0.962,"effective_pairs_changes":58,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (9) to speak of a relationship.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","years":9}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.81,"r_changes":0.227,"effective_pairs_changes":58,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-3.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-12.33},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-0.49},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-0.49},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-0.49},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-0.49},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.938,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-5.01},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.939,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-5.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.936,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-4.91},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.893,"actual":1.841,"gap_pct":-2.75},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.78,"gap_pct":-0.56}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-2.75,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.67 (−6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.64 (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.14.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.78},"values":{"2050":1.669,"2100":1.644},"low_2100":1.144}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −1.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":387.573,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":-10.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":394.051,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":-11.81},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":345.532,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":0.57},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":339.192,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":2.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":346.933,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":0.17},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":342.964,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":1.33},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":360.699,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":-3.66},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":363.083,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":-4.29},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":361.855,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":-3.96},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":352.355,"actual":347.51,"gap_pct":-1.38},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":338.531,"actual":342,"gap_pct":1.02}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-1.38,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (342k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":342,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (342k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":342,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 264k (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 158k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 52.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":342},"values":{"2050":264.4,"2100":157.7},"low_2100":52.36}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PRK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}