{"locations":[{"code":"PRI","name":"Puerto Rico","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PRI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.21 in 1950 → 0.87 in 2024 (−83%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1998, below 1.5 since 2013, below 1.0 since 2019. The trend broke around 1963 and 1970: −0.05 → −0.18 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":5.206,"last":0.871,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1998,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2013,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":-0.0548,"slope_after":-0.178},{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.178,"slope_after":-0.0389}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 87.4k in 1950 → 18k in 2025 (−79%). The trend broke around 1956 and 1997: −1.41k → −0.34k → −1.78k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":87.39,"last":18.003,"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":-1.41,"slope_after":-0.341},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.341,"slope_after":-1.78}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 87.3% in 2022 (+87 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 27.9% → 69%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2022,"first":0,"last":87.2918,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":27.86,"end":69}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44.3% in 1960 → 94.3% in 2025 (+50 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1966, above 75% since 1986. The trend broke around 1996: change slowed down (+1.7 → +0.01 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.308,"last":94.3405,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1966,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1986,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":1.71,"slope_after":0.00844}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 26,739 PPP dollars in 1990 → 44,603 PPP dollars in 2025 (+67%). The trend broke around 2004 and 2019: +1,163 → −79 → +556 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":26738.8144,"last":44603.2181,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":1160,"slope_after":-78.5},{"year":2019,"slope_before":-78.5,"slope_after":556}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1960–1970: 4.59 → 3.17. Over the same years: births 76.2k → 67.5k; urban share 44.3% → 56.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":4.593,"end":3.167,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":76.17,"end":67.53},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":44.308,"end":56.753},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 1.44 → 0.87; births 34.6k → 18.1k; internet 76.1% (2014); urban share 93.8% → 94.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 41,594 PPP dollars → 44,216 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.437,"end":0.871,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":34.6,"end":18.128},{"id":"internet_users","year":2014,"value":76.1339},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":93.7813,"end":94.254},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":41593.6798,"end":44216.4333}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.86); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.84). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.858,"r_changes":0.842,"effective_pairs_changes":53,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2022, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2022,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.961,"r_changes":0.037,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.22). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.926,"r_changes":0.224,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.75,"r_changes":0.239,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −40%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.933,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-42.64},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-41.64},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-40.06},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-40.06},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-40.06},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-40.06},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.697,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-34.66},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.613,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-31.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.587,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-30.13},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.1088,"gap_pct":-24.57},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.281,"actual":0.871,"gap_pct":-32.01}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-40.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.13 (+29% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.35 (+55% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 0.85.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":0.871},"values":{"2050":1.126,"2100":1.353},"low_2100":0.853}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −58%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.19,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-68.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.172,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-68.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":46.738,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-60.28},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.053,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-65.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.643,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-65.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":48.927,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-62.06},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":42.396,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-56.21},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":40.577,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-54.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":39.301,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-52.76},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":36.66,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-49.36},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":18.901,"actual":18.5649,"gap_pct":-1.78},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":26.35,"actual":18.003,"gap_pct":-31.68}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-58.25,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (18k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":18.003,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (18k, 2025) only around 2049: reality is 24 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":18.003,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2049,"years":24,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 18k, 6% below the UN 2024 medium variant (19.1k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":19.09,"actual_births_k":18.003,"gap_pct":-5.7,"un_lower95_births_k":14.73,"below_lower95":false,"source":"UN VSR table 3 (16 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/vitstats/seratab3.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 10.6k (−41% vs 2025), 2100 — 4.53k (−75% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":18.003},"values":{"2050":10.58,"2100":4.529},"low_2100":0.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PRI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}