{"locations":[{"code":"PNG","name":"Papua New Guinea","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PNG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.71 in 1950 → 3.10 in 2023 (−46%). Peak: 6.26 in 1969; the latest value is 50% lower. The trend broke around 1967 and 1973: +0.04 → −0.01 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.711,"last":3.099,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":6.258},"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":0.0351,"slope_after":-0.0129},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.0129,"slope_after":-0.0622}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 70.9k in 1950 → 255k in 2023 (×3.6). The trend broke around 1990 and 2011: +1.68k → +4.83k → +1.41k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":70.88,"last":255.3,"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":1.68,"slope_after":4.83},{"year":2011,"slope_before":4.83,"slope_after":1.41}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 18.8% in 2024 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 3.5% → 11.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":18.8116,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":3.5,"end":11.2092}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 3.5% in 1960 → 15.8% in 2025 (+12 pp). The trend broke around 1977 and 2016: +0.68 → −0.03 → +0.28 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":3.4627,"last":15.7797,"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.68,"slope_after":-0.0299},{"year":2016,"slope_before":-0.0299,"slope_after":0.282}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,165 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,456 PPP dollars in 2025 (+41%). Low: 3,047 PPP dollars in 2004; +46% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: +141 → −204 → +66 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3164.5543,"last":4456.2311,"trough":{"year":2004,"value":3046.7232},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":141,"slope_after":-204},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-204,"slope_after":65.9}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 5.47 → 4.78. Over the same years: births 131k → 163k; internet 0% (1996); urban share 14.2% → 14.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,009 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":5.47,"end":4.78,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":131,"end":162.5},{"id":"internet_users","year":1996,"value":0.0021},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":14.1707,"end":14.3542},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":4009.2357}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.68 → 3.10; births 244k → 255k; internet 5.1% → 18.6%; urban share 13.1% → 15.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,616 PPP dollars → 4,206 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.684,"end":3.099,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":243.7,"end":255.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.1,"end":18.5613},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.0582,"end":15.0581},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3615.7465,"end":4206.3783}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.966,"r_changes":-0.031,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.873,"r_changes":0.189,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.538,"r_changes":0.477,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.41); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.406,"r_changes":-0.294,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.85,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":19.63},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.49,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":-2.31},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.881,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":18.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.925,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":16.56},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.031,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":12.48},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.367,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.529,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":-3.39},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.55,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":-3.96},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.584,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":-4.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.588,"actual":3.4094,"gap_pct":-4.98},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.099,"actual":3.099,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.10) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.099,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.10, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.099,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.37 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.88 (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.38.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.099},"values":{"2050":2.365,"2100":1.881},"low_2100":1.381}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":151.986,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":65.86},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":188.752,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":33.55},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":180.148,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":39.93},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":179.412,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":40.5},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":191.467,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":31.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":215.759,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":16.83},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":218.733,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":15.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":219.545,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":14.82},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":219.521,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":14.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":226.478,"actual":252.08,"gap_pct":11.3},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":253.843,"actual":255.3,"gap_pct":0.57}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":16.83,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (255k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":255.3,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (255k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":255.3,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 269k (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 229k (−10% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 104k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":255.3},"values":{"2050":269.1,"2100":229.4},"low_2100":104}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PNG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}