{"locations":[{"code":"PLW","name":"Palau","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PLW/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.15 in 1950 → 1.91 in 2023 (−73%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1998. The trend broke around 1968 and 1981: −0.01 → −0.31 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.153,"last":1.907,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1998,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":-0.0138,"slope_after":-0.308},{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.308,"slope_after":-0.032}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.35k in 1950 → 0.19k in 2023 (−44%). Peak: 0.43k in 1961; the latest value is 55% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1979: +0.01k → −0.01k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.346,"last":0.193,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":0.433},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.00818,"slope_after":-0.00593},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.00593,"slope_after":-0.0029}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83.9% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2022.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":83.9255,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 43.9% in 1960 → 79.3% in 2025 (+35 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1964, above 75% since 2004. The trend broke around 1969 and 2013: +1.5 → +0.52 → −0.16 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":43.8948,"last":79.2836,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1964,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2004,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":1.48,"slope_after":0.517},{"year":2013,"slope_before":0.517,"slope_after":-0.158}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,808 PPP dollars in 1990 → 19,699 PPP dollars in 2025 (+11%). Low: 14,292 PPP dollars in 1993; +38% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17807.5301,"last":19698.5947,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":14292.2383}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1969–1979: 6.58 → 3.49. Over the same years: births 0.42k → 0.29k; urban share 57.4% → 62.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":6.576,"end":3.486,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":0.418,"end":0.294},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":57.3825,"end":62.1168},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.05 → 1.91; births 0.25k → 0.19k; internet 82.9% (2023); urban share 81.1% → 79.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,891 PPP dollars → 16,487 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.054,"end":1.907,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.247,"end":0.193},{"id":"internet_users","year":2023,"value":82.9163},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":81.0757,"end":79.1532},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17891.3784,"end":16487.1538}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.86); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.75). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.862,"r_changes":0.748,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (6) to speak of a relationship.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","years":6}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.64). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.923,"r_changes":0.641,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.20); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.202,"r_changes":-0.025,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.341,"actual":1.907,"gap_pct":-18.54}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.54,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.91, 2023) only around 2055: reality is 32 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.907,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2055,"years":32,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.72 (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.69 (−12% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.19.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.907},"values":{"2050":1.719,"2100":1.687},"low_2100":1.187}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.266,"actual":0.193,"gap_pct":-27.44}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-27.44,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.19k, 2023) only around 2068: reality is 45 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.193,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2068,"years":45,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.16k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.11k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.04k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.193},"values":{"2050":0.157,"2100":0.107},"low_2100":0.038}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PLW&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}