{"locations":[{"code":"PER","name":"Peru","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PER/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.94 in 1950 → 1.98 in 2023 (−71%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2019. The trend broke around 1965 and 1999: −0.01 → −0.12 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.939,"last":1.98,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":-0.00879,"slope_after":-0.118},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.118,"slope_after":-0.0374}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 369k in 1950 → 540k in 2023 (+46%). Peak: 685k in 1990; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1989: +10.7k → +6.15k → −4.93k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":368.5,"last":539.6,"peak":{"year":1990,"value":685.2},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":10.7,"slope_after":6.15},{"year":1989,"slope_before":6.15,"slope_after":-4.93}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 45.5% → 71.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":81.9571,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":45.4617,"end":71.1078}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 46.7% in 1960 → 85.6% in 2025 (+39 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1964, above 75% since 2006. The trend broke around 1975: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.41 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":46.6717,"last":85.5963,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1964,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2006,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":1.08,"slope_after":0.411}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,316 PPP dollars in 1990 → 16,079 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.5). The trend broke around 2004 and 2014: +154 → +612 → +110 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6316.2269,"last":16079.1247,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":154,"slope_after":612},{"year":2014,"slope_before":612,"slope_after":110}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1972–1982: 6.09 → 4.80. Over the same years: births 586k → 646k; urban share 59.6% → 65.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":6.091,"end":4.795,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":586,"end":646.1},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":59.5746,"end":65.6947},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.32 → 1.98; births 561k → 540k; internet 39.2% → 79.5%; urban share 79.3% → 84.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 14,050 PPP dollars → 15,342 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.317,"end":1.98,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":561.2,"end":539.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.2,"end":79.4848},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":79.3106,"end":84.781},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14050.242,"end":15342.2741}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.52); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.517,"r_changes":0.227,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.89,"r_changes":0.086,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.53). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.974,"r_changes":0.532,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.902,"r_changes":0.174,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −5.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.16,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-1.04},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.16,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-1.04},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.219,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-3.67},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.355,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-9.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.25,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-5},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.218,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-3.63},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.255,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-5.21},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.292,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-6.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.351,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-9.08},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.354,"actual":2.1375,"gap_pct":-9.2},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.144,"actual":1.98,"gap_pct":-7.65}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-5.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.98,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2035: reality is 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.98,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"years":12,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.74 (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.69 (−15% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.19.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.98},"values":{"2050":1.744,"2100":1.685},"low_2100":1.185}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −8.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":580.937,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-6.51},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":580.937,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-6.51},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":595.784,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-8.84},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":631.733,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-14.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":580.986,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-6.52},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":571.808,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-5.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":570.913,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-4.87},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":593.121,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-8.43},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":605.278,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-10.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":606.094,"actual":543.13,"gap_pct":-10.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":588.886,"actual":539.6,"gap_pct":-8.37}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-8.37,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (540k, 2023) only around 2035: reality is 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":539.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"years":12,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (540k, 2023) only around 2040: reality is 17 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":539.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2040,"years":17,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 455k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 327k (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 120k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":539.6},"values":{"2050":455.1,"2100":327.3},"low_2100":120.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PER&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}