{"locations":[{"code":"PAN","name":"Panama","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PAN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.57 in 1950 → 2.12 in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 5.87 in 1962; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 1986: +0.02 → −0.12 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.568,"last":2.119,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.872},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0165,"slope_after":-0.123},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.123,"slope_after":-0.0253}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 34.8k in 1950 → 71.5k in 2023 (+105%). The trend broke around 1965 and 2016: +1.26k → +0.51k → −1.32k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":34.79,"last":71.47,"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":1.26,"slope_after":0.512},{"year":2016,"slope_before":0.512,"slope_after":-1.32}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 72.8% in 2024 (+73 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 11.5% → 40.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":72.7715,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":11.484,"end":40.1}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 41.3% in 1960 → 66.2% in 2025 (+25 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1981. The trend broke around 1990 and 2002: +0.37 → +0.84 → +0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":41.2916,"last":66.1501,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1981,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.371,"slope_after":0.843},{"year":2002,"slope_before":0.843,"slope_after":0.106}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,264 PPP dollars in 1990 → 37,516 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.7). The trend broke around 2004 and 2013: +353 → +1,379 → +673 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10263.6928,"last":37516.1796,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":353,"slope_after":1380},{"year":2013,"slope_before":1380,"slope_after":673}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 5.41 → 3.98. Over the same years: births 55.1k → 58k; urban share 46.7% → 49.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":5.411,"end":3.984,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":55.1,"end":58.02},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":46.6902,"end":49.2751},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.57 → 2.12; births 78.1k → 71.5k; internet 44% → 68.5%; urban share 65.4% → 65.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 28,135 PPP dollars → 35,873 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.569,"end":2.119,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":78.11,"end":71.47},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":44.03,"end":68.5485},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":65.371,"end":65.8601},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28135.3388,"end":35872.9719}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.56). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.93,"r_changes":0.556,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.909,"r_changes":0.183,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.44). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.925,"r_changes":0.439,"effective_pairs_changes":8,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.56). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.896,"r_changes":0.561,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +4.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.099,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":14.44},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.099,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":14.44},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.32,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":3.54},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.291,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":4.85},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.291,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":4.85},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.291,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":4.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.28,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":5.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.358,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":1.87},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.357,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":1.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.469,"actual":2.4022,"gap_pct":-2.71},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.276,"actual":2.119,"gap_pct":-6.9}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":4.85,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (2.12, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.119,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.12, 2023) only around 2034: reality is 11 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.119,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2034,"years":11,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.86 (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.119},"values":{"2050":1.855,"2100":1.735},"low_2100":1.235}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.571,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":33.24},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.572,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":33.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":70.27,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":9.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.374,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":10.57},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.374,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":10.57},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.374,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":10.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.198,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":10.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":75.759,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":1.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":75.027,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":2.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":78.59,"actual":76.706,"gap_pct":-2.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":76.64,"actual":71.47,"gap_pct":-6.75}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":10.57,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 66.8k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 52.9k (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 20.9k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":71.47},"values":{"2050":66.76,"2100":52.91},"low_2100":20.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PAN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}