{"locations":[{"code":"PAK","name":"Pakistan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/PAK/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.80 in 1950 → 3.61 in 2023 (−47%). The trend broke around 1988 and 2005: −0.01 → −0.12 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.8,"last":3.605,"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":-0.00539,"slope_after":-0.117},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.117,"slope_after":-0.062}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.65M in 1950 → 6.88M in 2023 (×4.2). The trend broke around 1975 and 1990: +53.3k → +141k → +61.6k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1646,"last":6882,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":53.3,"slope_after":141},{"year":1990,"slope_before":141,"slope_after":61.6}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 57.3% in 2024 (+57 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2014, above 50% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 17.1% → 57.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":57.253,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2014,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":17.0709,"end":57.253}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 22.3% in 1960 → 39.5% in 2025 (+17 pp). The trend broke around 2017: change sped up (+0.2 → +0.41 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":22.2997,"last":39.5256,"breaks":[{"year":2017,"slope_before":0.199,"slope_after":0.41}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,200 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,617 PPP dollars in 2025 (+76%). The trend broke around 2001: change sped up (+26 → +87 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3199.7296,"last":5617.2508,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":25.5,"slope_after":86.7}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1994–2004: 6.01 → 4.69. Over the same years: births 5.29M → 5.69M; internet 0% → 6.2%; urban share 31.7% → 33.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,396 PPP dollars → 3,860 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":6.008,"end":4.685,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":5289,"end":5688},{"id":"internet_users","from":1995,"to":2004,"start":0.0001,"end":6.1643},{"id":"urban_population","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":31.6871,"end":33.7441},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1994,"to":2004,"start":3395.5043,"end":3859.646}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.13 → 3.61; births 6.73M → 6.88M; internet 9% → 57.3%; urban share 35.4% → 38.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,407 PPP dollars → 5,419 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.125,"end":3.605,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6734,"end":6882},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2024,"start":9,"end":57.253},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.4315,"end":38.8192},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4407.1471,"end":5418.7693}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.32). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.902,"r_changes":0.321,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2020, 26 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.37). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2020,"years":26,"r_levels":-0.923,"r_changes":-0.369,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.47). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.922,"r_changes":0.469,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.929,"r_changes":-0.014,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.89,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":33.87},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.705,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.598,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":7.52},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":28.96},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.882,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":34.24},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.203,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":20.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.856,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":35.46},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.893,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":33.73},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.378,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":14.53},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.377,"actual":3.8687,"gap_pct":14.56},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.347,"actual":3.605,"gap_pct":7.71}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":20.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.61) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.605,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (3.61) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.605,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.58 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.93 (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.43.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.605},"values":{"2050":2.582,"2100":1.932},"low_2100":1.432}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5617.617,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":18.49},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6355.349,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":4.74},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6216.445,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":7.08},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5115.442,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":30.13},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4944.645,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":34.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5603.262,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":18.8},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4781.985,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":39.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4604.116,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":44.58},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5479.821,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":21.47},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5445.106,"actual":6656.5,"gap_pct":22.25},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6474.37,"actual":6882,"gap_pct":6.3}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":21.47,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (6.88M, 2023) only around 2038: reality is 15 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6882,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2038,"years":15,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 7.5M (+9% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.46M (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.94M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6882},"values":{"2050":7496,"2100":6457},"low_2100":2944}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=PAK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}