{"locations":[{"code":"OMN","name":"Oman","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/OMN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.26 in 1950 → 2.53 in 2023 (−65%). Peak: 7.90 in 1981; the latest value is 68% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 2003: +0.02 → −0.25 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.261,"last":2.525,"peak":{"year":1981,"value":7.904},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.0218,"slope_after":-0.249},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.249,"slope_after":-0.0262}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 23.7k in 1950 → 85.1k in 2023 (×3.6). The trend broke around 1991 and 2004: +1.14k → −0.93k → +2.26k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":23.74,"last":85.06,"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.14,"slope_after":-0.932},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.932,"slope_after":2.26}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.3% in 2024 (+95 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2012, above 90% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 20% → 66.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":95.2517,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":20,"end":66.45}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 16.4% in 1960 → 79.5% in 2025 (+63 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1978, above 75% since 2010. The trend broke around 1988: change slowed down (+2 → +0.11 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":16.4,"last":79.4781,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1978,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":2.01,"slope_after":0.112}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 35,202 PPP dollars in 1990 → 36,143 PPP dollars in 2025 (+3%). Peak: 48,304 PPP dollars in 2009; the latest value is 25% lower. The trend broke around 2009 and 2015: +555 → −1,129 → −233 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":35201.5525,"last":36142.944,"peak":{"year":2009,"value":48304.1179},"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":555,"slope_after":-1130},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-1130,"slope_after":-233}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 6.95 → 4.27. Over the same years: births 64.8k → 56.2k; internet 0.9% (1998); urban share 68.5% → 71.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 40,575 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":6.953,"end":4.274,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":64.79,"end":56.15},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":0.863},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":68.5128,"end":71.5923},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":40574.6745}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.95 → 2.53; births 80.3k → 85.1k; internet 66.5% → 95.3%; urban share 76.5% → 79.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 40,854 PPP dollars → 37,794 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.954,"end":2.525,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":80.31,"end":85.06},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":66.45,"end":95.2517},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":76.4914,"end":79.5703},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":40854.4854,"end":37793.6164}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.71); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.63). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.707,"r_changes":0.63,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.52).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.634,"r_changes":0.518,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.60). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.752,"r_changes":0.596,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.50); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.501,"r_changes":-0.149,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +7.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.09,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":-30.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.27,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":-33.59},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.478,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":-18.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.707,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":4.76},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.577,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":10.05},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.639,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":7.46},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.894,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":49.73},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.541,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":11.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.515,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":12.76},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.537,"actual":2.8359,"gap_pct":11.78},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.522,"actual":2.525,"gap_pct":0.12}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":7.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.53, 2023) only around 2038: reality is 15 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.525,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2038,"years":15,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.53, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.525,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.91 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−31% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.525},"values":{"2050":1.907,"2100":1.739},"low_2100":1.239}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":138.531,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":-35.99},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":142.822,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":-37.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":101.687,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":-12.79},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":71.227,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":24.5},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":66.479,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":33.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":68.616,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":29.24},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.603,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":90.29},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":73.318,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":20.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":81.45,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":8.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":80.574,"actual":88.679,"gap_pct":10.06},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":79.479,"actual":85.06,"gap_pct":7.02}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":10.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 105k (+23% vs 2023), 2100 — 132k (+56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 68.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":85.06},"values":{"2050":104.8,"2100":132.3},"low_2100":68.74}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=OMN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}