{"locations":[{"code":"NZL","name":"New Zealand","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NZL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.55 in 1950 → 1.55 in 2025 (−56%). Peak: 4.31 in 1961; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1960 and 1978: +0.08 → −0.12 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.552,"last":1.55,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":4.306},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.0811,"slope_after":-0.122},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.122,"slope_after":-0.00688}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 49.1k in 1950 → 57.7k in 2025 (+18%). Peak: 65k in 1961; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1980: +1.4k → −0.63k → +0.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":49.1,"last":57.705,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":65.03},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":1.4,"slope_after":-0.633},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.633,"slope_after":0.156}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.5% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 8% → 53.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.5193,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":8.04,"end":53.241}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 62.4% in 1960 → 84% in 2025 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1969. The trend broke around 1972 and 2005: +1.8 → +0.12 → −0.15 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":62.3756,"last":83.9979,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":1.82,"slope_after":0.124},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.124,"slope_after":-0.146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 30,786 PPP dollars in 1990 → 48,233 PPP dollars in 2025 (+57%). Low: 29,014 PPP dollars in 1991; +66% since then. The trend broke around 2005: change slowed down (+781 → +467 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":30785.7018,"last":48232.6652,"trough":{"year":1991,"value":29014.1499},"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":781,"slope_after":467}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 4.05 → 2.74. Over the same years: births 64.2k → 59.9k; urban share 65.7% → 82.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":4.046,"end":2.738,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":64.19,"end":59.87},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":65.6697,"end":82.263},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.98 → 1.55; births 59.9k → 57.7k; internet 85.2% → 93.5%; urban share 85.2% → 84%; GDP per person (PPP) 45,097 PPP dollars → 48,233 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.982,"end":1.55,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":59.85,"end":57.705},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":85.2,"end":93.5193},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":85.1519,"end":83.9979},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":45097.0165,"end":48232.6652}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.25); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.86). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.25,"r_changes":0.856,"effective_pairs_changes":45,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.43); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.427,"r_changes":-0.119,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.917,"r_changes":0.095,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.36).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.616,"r_changes":0.355,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.05,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-20.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.82,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-10.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.953,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-16.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-12.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-12.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.882,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-13.51},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.127,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-23.47},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.939,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-16.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.938,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-16.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.925,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-15.44},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":1.6278,"gap_pct":-11.87},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.746,"actual":1.55,"gap_pct":-11.23}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.47,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.62 (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.63 (+5% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.55},"values":{"2050":1.616,"2100":1.625},"low_2100":1.125}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −2.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.881,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-3.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":49.421,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":18.54},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.291,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":9.94},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.546,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":7.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.284,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":4.09},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.583,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":0},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":67.593,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-13.33},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.94,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-6.92},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.335,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-2.9},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.499,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-6.26},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.977,"actual":58.5857,"gap_pct":-2.32},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":63.615,"actual":57.705,"gap_pct":-9.29}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-2.61,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 57.7k, 1% below the UN 2024 medium variant (58.5k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":58.49,"actual_births_k":57.705,"gap_pct":-1.3,"un_lower95_births_k":48.8,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Stats NZ, Births and deaths: Year ended December 2025 (released 17 Feb 2026), Table 1","source_url":"https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2025-including-abridged-period-life-table/"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 56.1k (−3% vs 2025), 2100 — 50.3k (−13% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 21.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":57.705},"values":{"2050":56.14,"2100":50.34},"low_2100":21.4}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NZL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}