{"locations":[{"code":"NRU","name":"Nauru","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NRU/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.60 in 1950 → 3.33 in 2023 (−28%). Peak: 5.48 in 1965; the latest value is 39% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1974: +0.07 → −0.18 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.601,"last":3.331,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":5.476},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0664,"slope_after":-0.177},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.177,"slope_after":-0.00836}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.1k in 1950 → 0.3k in 2023 (×3). Peak: 0.38k in 2015; the latest value is 19% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 1983: 0k → +0.02k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.102,"last":0.303,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":0.375},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.000959,"slope_after":0.0194},{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.0194,"slope_after":0.00192}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83% in 2024 (+83 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 62.4% → 83.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":83.0117,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":62.3851,"end":83.2266}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 30,127 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,135 PPP dollars in 2025 (−60%). Low: 6,110 PPP dollars in 2007; +99% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2004: −2,615 → −570 → +297 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":30127.2259,"last":12134.8921,"trough":{"year":2007,"value":6110.3839},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-2620,"slope_after":-570},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-570,"slope_after":297}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 5.41 → 3.90. Over the same years: births 0.18k → 0.14k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":5.412,"end":3.899,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":0.181,"end":0.142},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.10 → 3.33; births 0.37k → 0.3k; internet 83% (2023); urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,800 PPP dollars → 11,859 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.098,"end":3.331,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.372,"end":0.303},{"id":"internet_users","year":2023,"value":83.0397},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":9799.738,"end":11858.5185}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.70); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.697,"r_changes":0.55,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (9) to speak of a relationship.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","years":9}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.37); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.26).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.374,"r_changes":0.257,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.425,"actual":3.331,"gap_pct":-2.74}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-2.74,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.33, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.331,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.53 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.97 (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.47.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.331},"values":{"2050":2.53,"2100":1.968},"low_2100":1.468}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.333,"actual":0.303,"gap_pct":-9.01}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-9.01,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.3k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.303,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.32k (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.28k (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.13k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.303},"values":{"2050":0.32,"2100":0.282},"low_2100":0.127}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NRU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}