{"locations":[{"code":"NPL","name":"Nepal","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NPL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.06 in 1950 → 1.98 in 2023 (−67%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2019. The trend broke around 1991 and 2009: −0.02 → −0.16 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.057,"last":1.984,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0216,"slope_after":-0.155},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-0.155,"slope_after":-0.0445}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 391k in 1950 → 574k in 2023 (+47%). Peak: 820k in 1995; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1994: direction reversed (+11.6k → −8.64k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":390.8,"last":574.3,"peak":{"year":1995,"value":819.7},"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":11.6,"slope_after":-8.64}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 46.3% in 2024 (+46 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 24.3% → 45.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":46.3219,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":24.3,"end":45.4508}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 3.5% in 1960 → 67% in 2025 (+63 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2007. The trend broke around 1999 and 2010: +0.69 → +3.3 → +0.31 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":3.5144,"last":66.9994,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.694,"slope_after":3.3},{"year":2010,"slope_before":3.3,"slope_after":0.308}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,808 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,277 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.9). The trend broke around 2007: change sped up (+51 → +141 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1808.2649,"last":5276.9239,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":50.5,"slope_after":141}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1995–2005: 4.87 → 3.12. Over the same years: births 820k → 680k; internet 0% → 0.8%; urban share 24.1% → 45.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,044 PPP dollars → 2,580 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":4.869,"end":3.115,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":819.7,"end":679.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":0.0009,"end":0.8266},{"id":"urban_population","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":24.1001,"end":45.5066},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":2043.6052,"end":2580.2311}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.36 → 1.98; births 620k → 574k; internet 13.3% → 45.8%; urban share 64.1% → 66.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,427 PPP dollars → 4,861 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.36,"end":1.984,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":619.6,"end":574.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.3,"end":45.8068},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.1315,"end":66.5433},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3426.558,"end":4861.2303}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.37); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.65). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.367,"r_changes":0.654,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.73); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.726,"r_changes":0.295,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.60). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.991,"r_changes":-0.601,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.893,"r_changes":0.074,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.74,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-21.45},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.31,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-34.98},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.956,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-27.19},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.754,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-21.85},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.746,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-21.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.497,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-13.81},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.328,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":-7.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.109,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":2.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.093,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":2.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.083,"actual":2.1522,"gap_pct":3.32},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.987,"actual":1.984,"gap_pct":-0.15}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-13.81,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (1.98, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.984,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.984,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.73 (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.984},"values":{"2050":1.733,"2100":1.674},"low_2100":1.174}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −22%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":792.292,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-24.33},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":914.928,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-34.47},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":828.792,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-27.66},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":829.662,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-27.74},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":847.039,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-29.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":770.008,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-22.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":723.252,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":-17.11},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":574.687,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":4.32},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":582.457,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":2.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":574.391,"actual":599.52,"gap_pct":4.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":613.318,"actual":574.3,"gap_pct":-6.36}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-22.14,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (574k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":574.3,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (574k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":574.3,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 433k (−25% vs 2023), 2100 — 278k (−52% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 86.9k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":574.3},"values":{"2050":432.5,"2100":277.7},"low_2100":86.92}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NPL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}