{"locations":[{"code":"NIU","name":"Niue","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NIU/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.32 in 1950 → 2.51 in 2023 (−60%). Peak: 6.96 in 1959; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1960 and 1997: +0.08 → −0.11 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.324,"last":2.514,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":6.962},"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.0773,"slope_after":-0.109},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.109,"slope_after":-0.0165}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.2k in 1950 → 0.03k in 2023 (−87%). Peak: 0.23k in 1957; the latest value is 89% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1986: 0k → −0.01k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.199,"last":0.025,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":0.234},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0014,"slope_after":-0.00825},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.00825,"slope_after":-0.00117}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 6.60 → 4.72. Over the same years: births 0.22k → 0.11k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":6.597,"end":4.717,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":0.221,"end":0.113}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.97 → 2.51; births 0.03k → 0.03k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.971,"end":2.514,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.028,"end":0.025}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.99); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.83). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.99,"r_changes":0.834,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +5.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.39,"actual":2.514,"gap_pct":5.19}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":5.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.01 (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.75 (−30% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.25.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.514},"values":{"2050":2.01,"2100":1.75},"low_2100":1.25}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.027,"actual":0.025,"gap_pct":-7.41}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-7.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.03k (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.03k (+8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.025},"values":{"2050":0.026,"2100":0.027},"low_2100":0.012}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NIU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}