{"locations":[{"code":"NGA","name":"Nigeria","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NGA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.42 in 1950 → 4.80 in 2024 (−25%). Peak: 6.92 in 1978; the latest value is 31% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 2011: +0.02 → −0.03 → −0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":6.419,"last":4.8,"peak":{"year":1978,"value":6.921},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.0165,"slope_after":-0.0288},{"year":2011,"slope_before":-0.0288,"slope_after":-0.111}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.71M in 1950 → 7.51M in 2023 (×4.4). The trend broke around 1989 and 2013: +66.9k → +137k → −1.28k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1707,"last":7510,"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":66.9,"slope_after":137},{"year":2013,"slope_before":137,"slope_after":-1.28}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 41.2% in 2024 (+41 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2010. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 25.9% → 39.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":41.2114,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":25.8779,"end":39.1472}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 14.2% in 1960 → 63.8% in 2025 (+50 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2008.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":14.232,"last":63.7754,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,424 PPP dollars in 1990 → 8,145 PPP dollars in 2025 (+50%). Low: 4,782 PPP dollars in 1999; +70% since then. The trend broke around 1999 and 2013: −78 → +289 → −85 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":5423.8069,"last":8145.1481,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":4781.6731},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-77.7,"slope_after":289},{"year":2013,"slope_before":289,"slope_after":-84.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2011–2021: 5.89 → 4.64. Over the same years: births 7.16M → 7.33M; internet 13.8% → 35.5%; urban share 52.5% → 60.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,154 PPP dollars → 7,588 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":5.893,"end":4.636,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":7163,"end":7331},{"id":"internet_users","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":13.8,"end":35.5098},{"id":"urban_population","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":52.4904,"end":60.5699},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":8153.5318,"end":7588.4789}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.83). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.745,"r_changes":0.833,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.966,"r_changes":-0.307,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.82,"r_changes":0.046,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.70); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.696,"r_changes":0.353,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +22%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.52,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":44.93},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.888,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":31.22},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.735,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":36.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.148,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":22.99},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.148,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":22.99},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.199,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":21.5},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.216,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":-2.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.732,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":-11},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.408,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":-5.66},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.417,"actual":5.1017,"gap_pct":-5.82},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":4.993,"actual":4.8,"gap_pct":-3.87}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":21.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.80) already around 2001: reality is 23 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":4.8,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2001,"years":23,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (4.80, 2024) only around 2027: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":4.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":3,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.66 (−45% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.91 (−60% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.41.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":4.8},"values":{"2050":2.658,"2100":1.913},"low_2100":1.413}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4776.88,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":53.37},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5533.811,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":32.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5122.645,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":43.02},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5595.735,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":30.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6133.772,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":19.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6093.516,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":20.23},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7250.554,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":1.05},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7747.071,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":-5.43},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7362.696,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":-0.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7381.153,"actual":7326.5,"gap_pct":-0.74},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":8109.136,"actual":7510,"gap_pct":-7.39}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":19.45,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (7.51M) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":7510,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (7.51M) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":7510,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 8.08M (+8% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.62M (−12% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.25M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":7510},"values":{"2050":8080,"2100":6624},"low_2100":3251}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NGA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}