{"locations":[{"code":"NER","name":"Niger","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NER/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.56 in 1950 → 6.06 in 2023 (−20%). Peak: 7.93 in 1985; the latest value is 24% lower. The trend broke around 1999 and 2012: +0.01 → −0.02 → −0.15 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.559,"last":6.061,"peak":{"year":1985,"value":7.932},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.0086,"slope_after":-0.0204},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.0204,"slope_after":-0.147}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 152k in 1950 → 1.1M in 2023 (×7.2). The trend broke around 1995: change sped up (+11.1k → +20.3k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":152.3,"last":1096,"breaks":[{"year":1995,"slope_before":11.1,"slope_after":20.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 15.6% in 2024 (+16 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 1.2% → 11.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":15.5576,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":1.2487,"end":11.2855}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 5.7% in 1960 → 18.4% in 2025 (+13 pp). The trend broke around 1983 and 2019: +0.44 → +0.05 → +0.26 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":5.7099,"last":18.3741,"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.44,"slope_after":0.0474},{"year":2019,"slope_before":0.0474,"slope_after":0.258}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,420 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,861 PPP dollars in 2025 (+31%). Low: 1,198 PPP dollars in 2000; +55% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2007: −27 → −0.83 → +31 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1420.2306,"last":1860.5486,"trough":{"year":2000,"value":1197.6348},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-26.8,"slope_after":-0.827},{"year":2007,"slope_before":-0.827,"slope_after":30.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 7.53 → 6.14. Over the same years: births 860k → 1.06M; internet 1.1% → 13.1%; urban share 16.2% → 17.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,412 PPP dollars → 1,725 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":7.527,"end":6.135,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":860,"end":1062},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":1.05,"end":13.0875},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":16.2141,"end":17.4772},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":1411.52,"end":1724.897}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.53); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.528,"r_changes":0.42,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.46). Changes line up best with a 7 years shift: \"Internet\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.83).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.976,"r_changes":-0.458,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":{"years":-7,"r":0.829,"leader":"internet_users"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.13); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.26).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.126,"r_changes":-0.263,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.937,"r_changes":0.274,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.61,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":47.29},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.77,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":0.3},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.888,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":-1.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.756,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":0.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.536,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":3.89},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.523,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":4.1},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.686,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":1.56},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.408,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":-8.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.457,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":-8.94},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.153,"actual":6.7902,"gap_pct":-5.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.668,"actual":6.061,"gap_pct":-9.1}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (6.06) already around 2004: reality is 19 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.061,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2004,"years":19,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (6.06, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.061,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.22 (−47% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.01 (−67% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.51.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.061},"values":{"2050":3.223,"2100":2.01},"low_2100":1.51}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":668.16,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":45.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":951.708,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":2.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":959.874,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1008.554,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":-3.63},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":926.446,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":4.91},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1002.636,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":-3.06},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":941.017,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":3.29},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1041.194,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":-6.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1073.436,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":-9.46},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1048.391,"actual":971.93,"gap_pct":-7.29},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1216.927,"actual":1096,"gap_pct":-9.94}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (1.1M, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1096,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (1.1M) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1096,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.39M (+27% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.28M (+16% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 654k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1096},"values":{"2050":1388,"2100":1276},"low_2100":654.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NER&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}