{"locations":[{"code":"NCL","name":"New Caledonia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NCL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.13 in 1950 → 1.98 in 2023 (−61%). Peak: 5.47 in 1961; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2015. The trend broke around 1970 and 1984: 0 → −0.15 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.132,"last":1.98,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":5.465},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.00176,"slope_after":-0.153},{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.153,"slope_after":-0.0326}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.24k in 1950 → 4.13k in 2023 (+85%). Peak: 4.73k in 2000; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1973 and 2000: +0.08k → +0.02k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.239,"last":4.134,"peak":{"year":2000,"value":4.73},"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.0845,"slope_after":0.0196},{"year":2000,"slope_before":0.0196,"slope_after":-0.0144}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82% in 2017 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 34% → 70%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":82.0058,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":33.99,"end":70}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 36.6% in 1960 → 68.2% in 2025 (+32 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1969. The trend broke around 1972: change slowed down (+1.5 → +0.29 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":36.5923,"last":68.1718,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":1.5,"slope_after":0.291}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1973–1983: 4.93 → 3.35. Over the same years: births 4.28k → 4.01k; urban share 54.1% → 58.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":4.932,"end":3.353,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":4.284,"end":4.013},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":54.05,"end":58.5844}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.17 → 1.98; births 4.55k → 4.13k; internet 66% (2013); urban share 66.8% → 67.8%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.167,"end":1.98,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.551,"end":4.134},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":66},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":66.7584,"end":67.7515}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.60). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.803,"r_changes":0.604,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 23 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":23,"r_levels":-0.838,"r_changes":0.057,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.941,"r_changes":0.298,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":-2.26},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":-2.26},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.103,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":-2.4},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.103,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":-2.4},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.93,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":6.35},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.936,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":6.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.003,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":2.47},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.044,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.041,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":0.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.142,"actual":2.0525,"gap_pct":-4.18},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.986,"actual":1.98,"gap_pct":-0.3}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.98,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.98, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.98,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.77 (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.71 (−14% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.21.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.98},"values":{"2050":1.774,"2100":1.708},"low_2100":1.208}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.242,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":2.58},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.396,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":-1.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.401,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":-1.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.393,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":-0.94},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.107,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":5.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.13,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":5.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.153,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":4.78},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.065,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":7.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.044,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":7.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.315,"actual":4.3515,"gap_pct":0.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.079,"actual":4.134,"gap_pct":1.35}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":2.58,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.76k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.04k (−26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.27k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.134},"values":{"2050":3.756,"2100":3.041},"low_2100":1.265}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NCL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}