{"locations":[{"code":"NAM","name":"Namibia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/NAM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.61 in 1950 → 3.21 in 2023 (−43%). Peak: 6.55 in 1974; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 2003: +0.04 → −0.11 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.614,"last":3.212,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":6.552},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.038,"slope_after":-0.114},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.114,"slope_after":-0.0165}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 21.1k in 1950 → 76.7k in 2023 (×3.6). The trend broke around 1961: change sped up (+0.37k → +0.84k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":21.09,"last":76.72,"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.374,"slope_after":0.84}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 64.9% in 2024 (+65 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 14.8% → 49.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":64.8746,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":14.84,"end":49.7759}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23.4% in 1960 → 50.9% in 2025 (+27 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2024. The trend broke around 1994 and 2015: +0.1 → +0.88 → +0.53 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.3951,"last":50.8667,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.103,"slope_after":0.882},{"year":2015,"slope_before":0.882,"slope_after":0.528}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,282 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,242 PPP dollars in 2025 (+41%). Peak: 12,167 PPP dollars in 2015; the latest value is 16% lower. The trend broke around 2001 and 2014: +39 → +316 → −216 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":7281.7789,"last":10242.284,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":12166.5658},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":39.5,"slope_after":316},{"year":2014,"slope_before":316,"slope_after":-216}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1986–1996: 5.79 → 4.20. Over the same years: births 43.4k → 54.2k; internet 0% (1996); urban share 26.2% → 29.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 7,539 PPP dollars (1996).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":5.793,"end":4.201,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":43.36,"end":54.23},{"id":"internet_users","year":1996,"value":0.009},{"id":"urban_population","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":26.2196,"end":29.2772},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1996,"value":7538.9246}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.65 → 3.21; births 70.2k → 76.7k; internet 13.9% → 63.7%; urban share 44.1% → 50%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,594 PPP dollars → 10,126 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.653,"end":3.212,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":70.23,"end":76.72},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.9,"end":63.6955},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":44.1107,"end":49.9546},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11593.5754,"end":10126.236}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.33). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.887,"r_changes":0.326,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.61); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.614,"r_changes":-0.17,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.886,"r_changes":0.29,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.681,"r_changes":0.422,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.3,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":5.62},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.593,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":-2.99},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.051,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":14.24},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.856,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":22.04},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.693,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":29.43},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.814,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":23.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.782,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":25.29},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.828,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":23.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.311,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":5.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.311,"actual":3.4855,"gap_pct":5.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.212,"actual":3.212,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":14.24,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.21) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.212,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (3.21) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.212,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.43 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.91 (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.41.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.212},"values":{"2050":2.426,"2100":1.91},"low_2100":1.41}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":62.654,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":18.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":72.203,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":3.21},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.087,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":21.99},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":60.504,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":23.17},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":56.901,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":30.96},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":60.856,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":22.45},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":60.84,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":22.49},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.79,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":20.6},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":73.146,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":1.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":72.686,"actual":74.52,"gap_pct":2.52},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":69.215,"actual":76.72,"gap_pct":10.84}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":20.6,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 86.3k (+13% vs 2023), 2100 — 71.2k (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 30.9k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":76.72},"values":{"2050":86.33,"2100":71.23},"low_2100":30.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=NAM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}