{"locations":[{"code":"MYT","name":"Mayotte","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MYT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.86 in 1950 → 4.62 in 2023 (−33%). Peak: 7.53 in 1975; the latest value is 39% lower. The trend broke around 1978 and 2004: +0.03 → −0.12 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.864,"last":4.616,"peak":{"year":1975,"value":7.533},"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.0285,"slope_after":-0.119},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.119,"slope_after":0.00695}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.04k in 1950 → 11.2k in 2023 (×11). The trend broke around 1977 and 2011: +0.04k → +0.17k → +0.29k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.044,"last":11.19,"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0363,"slope_after":0.167},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.167,"slope_after":0.286}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1980–1990: 7.32 → 6.05. Over the same years: births 2.37k → 4.04k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1980,"to":1990,"start":7.323,"end":6.051,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1980,"to":1990,"start":2.37,"end":4.041}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.43 → 4.62; births 7.94k → 11.2k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.433,"end":4.616,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7.935,"end":11.19}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.73). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.915,"r_changes":0.727,"effective_pairs_changes":71,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 6 revisions (2008–2022) and above in 6; median gap +23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.478,"actual":4.6053,"gap_pct":85.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.837,"actual":4.6053,"gap_pct":20.02},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.467,"actual":4.6053,"gap_pct":32.83},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.73,"actual":4.6053,"gap_pct":23.47},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.729,"actual":4.6053,"gap_pct":23.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.302,"actual":4.616,"gap_pct":7.3}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":23.48,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.27 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.20 (−52% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.70.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.616},"values":{"2050":3.268,"2100":2.204},"low_2100":1.704}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 6 revisions (2008–2022) and above in 6; median gap +31%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.251,"actual":9.5294,"gap_pct":81.48},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.258,"actual":9.5294,"gap_pct":31.3},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.498,"actual":9.5294,"gap_pct":46.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.251,"actual":9.5294,"gap_pct":31.42},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.249,"actual":9.5294,"gap_pct":31.46},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":10.79,"actual":11.19,"gap_pct":3.71}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":31.44,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (11.2k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":11.19,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (11.2k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":11.19,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 16.2k (+45% vs 2023), 2100 — 20k (+79% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 11.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":11.19},"values":{"2050":16.17,"2100":20.01},"low_2100":11.11}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MYT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}