{"locations":[{"code":"MWI","name":"Malawi","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MWI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.82 in 1950 → 3.65 in 2023 (−47%). Peak: 7.52 in 1980; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 2007: +0.02 → −0.07 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.824,"last":3.648,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":7.518},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.0237,"slope_after":-0.0705},{"year":2007,"slope_before":-0.0705,"slope_after":-0.134}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 146k in 1950 → 662k in 2023 (×4.5). The trend broke around 1977 and 1991: +5.44k → +12.8k → +6.05k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":146,"last":662.3,"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":5.44,"slope_after":12.8},{"year":1991,"slope_before":12.8,"slope_after":6.05}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 19% in 2024 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 7% → 16.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":18.9616,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":7,"end":16.8483}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 4% in 1960 → 17.6% in 2025 (+14 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 1998: +0.11 → +0.3 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":4.0439,"last":17.595,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.114,"slope_after":0.301},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.301,"slope_after":0.098}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,047 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,623 PPP dollars in 2025 (+55%). Low: 976 PPP dollars in 1994; +66% since then. The trend broke around 2006 and 2012: +13 → +54 → +7 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1047.4644,"last":1623.0218,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":975.8496},"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":12.7,"slope_after":53.7},{"year":2012,"slope_before":53.7,"slope_after":6.97}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2007–2017: 5.72 → 4.11. Over the same years: births 588k → 608k; internet 1% → 7%; urban share 15.2% → 16%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,318 PPP dollars → 1,613 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":5.724,"end":4.113,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":587.5,"end":607.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":0.9659,"end":7},{"id":"urban_population","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":15.2478,"end":15.9634},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":1318.332,"end":1613.0594}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.76 → 3.65; births 610k → 662k; internet 5.1% → 18%; urban share 15.7% → 17%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,556 PPP dollars → 1,649 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.759,"end":3.648,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":609.7,"end":662.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.05,"end":17.9881},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":15.6966,"end":16.9749},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1555.5061,"end":1649.2987}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.39). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.822,"r_changes":0.39,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.917,"r_changes":0.167,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.821,"r_changes":0.074,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.96,"r_changes":-0.161,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.575,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-10.68},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.1,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-19.87},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.746,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-13.9},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.697,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-13},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.608,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-11.32},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.608,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-11.32},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.865,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-30.32},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.049,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-19.06},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.877,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-16.21},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.492,"actual":4.0865,"gap_pct":-9.03},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.791,"actual":3.648,"gap_pct":-3.77}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-13,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (3.65, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.648,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.65, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.648,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.55 (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.95 (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.45.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.648},"values":{"2050":2.545,"2100":1.95},"low_2100":1.45}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −6.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":624.002,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-1.62},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":658.833,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-6.82},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":613.884,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":0},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":643.472,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-4.6},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":657.322,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-6.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":694.631,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-11.62},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":840.958,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-27},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":711.743,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-13.75},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":699.928,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-12.29},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":688.217,"actual":613.89,"gap_pct":-10.8},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":678.962,"actual":662.3,"gap_pct":-2.45}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-6.82,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (662k) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":662.3,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (662k) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":662.3,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 801k (+21% vs 2023), 2100 — 772k (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 349k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":662.3},"values":{"2050":801.3,"2100":771.6},"low_2100":349.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MWI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}