{"locations":[{"code":"MUS","name":"Mauritius","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MUS/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.03 in 1950 → 1.24 in 2023 (−79%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1997, below 1.5 since 2010. The trend broke around 1964 and 1973: 0 → −0.33 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.027,"last":1.241,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1997,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2010,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":-0.00336,"slope_after":-0.326},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.326,"slope_after":-0.0368}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 22.2k in 1950 → 11.8k in 2023 (−47%). Peak: 28.1k in 1963; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1959 and 1999: +0.38k → −0.14k → −0.36k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":22.21,"last":11.8,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":28.05},"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.377,"slope_after":-0.139},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.139,"slope_after":-0.363}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 73.3% in 2024 (+73 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 22.5% → 44.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":73.3079,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":22.51,"end":44.8033}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 39.9% in 1960 → 39% in 2025 (−0.8 pp). Peak: 44.1% in 1972; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1967 and 1994: +0.49 → −0.02 → −0.14 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":39.8851,"last":39.037,"peak":{"year":1972,"value":44.1},"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":0.491,"slope_after":-0.0193},{"year":1994,"slope_before":-0.0193,"slope_after":-0.145}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,986 PPP dollars in 1990 → 28,770 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.2).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8986.0331,"last":28769.5128}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 6.18 → 3.07. Over the same years: births 28.1k → 19.6k; urban share 41.5% → 44%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":6.18,"end":3.071,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":28.05,"end":19.61},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":41.5389,"end":44.0438},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.42 → 1.24; births 14.1k → 11.8k; internet 40.1% → 79.5%; urban share 39.9% → 39%; GDP per person (PPP) 20,952 PPP dollars → 26,471 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.419,"end":1.241,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14.07,"end":11.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":40.1168,"end":79.5},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.9109,"end":39.004},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20952.3776,"end":26471.0351}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.93). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.795,"r_changes":0.926,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.916,"r_changes":0.052,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.35); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.35,"r_changes":0.022,"effective_pairs_changes":41,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.971,"r_changes":-0.293,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-28.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-28.25},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-26.31},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-26.31},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-26.31},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-26.31},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.546,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-11.82},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.497,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-8.94},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.44,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-5.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.433,"actual":1.3632,"gap_pct":-4.87},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.385,"actual":1.241,"gap_pct":-10.4}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-26.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.31 (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.45 (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.95.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.241},"values":{"2050":1.312,"2100":1.454},"low_2100":0.954}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.295,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-27.72},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.468,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-28.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.602,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-28.91},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.552,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-28.72},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.476,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-28.43},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.643,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-29.07},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.969,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-17.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.222,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-7.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.879,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-4.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.386,"actual":13.224,"gap_pct":-1.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":13.182,"actual":11.8,"gap_pct":-10.48}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-27.72,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (11.8k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":11.8,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (11.8k, 2023) only around 2038: reality is 15 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":11.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2038,"years":15,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 7.36k (−38% vs 2023), 2100 — 3.72k (−68% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.79k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":11.8},"values":{"2050":7.358,"2100":3.719},"low_2100":0.793}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MUS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}