{"locations":[{"code":"MTQ","name":"Martinique","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MTQ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.50 in 1950 → 2.01 in 2023 (−63%). Peak: 5.71 in 1957; the latest value is 65% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1985. The trend broke around 1966 and 1979: 0 → −0.27 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.497,"last":2.01,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":5.706},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1985,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.00161,"slope_after":-0.268},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.268,"slope_after":-0.00317}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 9.11k in 1950 → 3.73k in 2023 (−59%). Peak: 10.8k in 1962; the latest value is 66% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1976: +0.12k → −0.4k → −0.05k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":9.107,"last":3.728,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":10.84},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.124,"slope_after":-0.403},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.403,"slope_after":-0.0545}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 5.25 → 2.53. Over the same years: births 10.3k → 5.83k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.25,"end":2.531,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":10.33,"end":5.832}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.99 → 2.01; births 4.46k → 3.73k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.988,"end":2.01,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.46,"end":3.728}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.93). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.94,"r_changes":0.932,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +7.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.874,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":6.18},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":13.06},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":7.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":7.56},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":7.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":7.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.754,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":13.44},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.789,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":11.22},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.875,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":6.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.881,"actual":1.9898,"gap_pct":5.78},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.899,"actual":2.01,"gap_pct":5.85}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":7.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.83 (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.75 (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.25.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.01},"values":{"2050":1.832,"2100":1.75},"low_2100":1.25}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.43,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-27.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.846,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-19.26},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.17,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-24.32},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.492,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-12.89},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.486,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-12.78},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.788,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-18.28},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.508,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-13.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.373,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-10.52},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.198,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-6.79},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.207,"actual":3.9129,"gap_pct":-6.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.525,"actual":3.728,"gap_pct":5.76}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-12.89,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (3.73k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.728,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (3.73k, 2023) only around 2042: reality is 19 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.728,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2042,"years":19,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.64k (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.8k (−52% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.67k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.728},"values":{"2050":2.636,"2100":1.802},"low_2100":0.665}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MTQ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}