{"locations":[{"code":"MSR","name":"Montserrat","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MSR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.82 in 1950 → 1.44 in 2023 (−70%). Low: 1.20 in 1999; +20% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1994, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 2000: direction reversed (−0.06 → +0.01 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.824,"last":1.444,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":1.204},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1994,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.0577,"slope_after":0.0105}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.46k in 1950 → 0.04k in 2023 (−91%). The trend broke around 1993 and 1999: −0.01k → −0.02k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.455,"last":0.039,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0067,"slope_after":-0.0189},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.0189,"slope_after":0.000185}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 3.99 → 2.44. Over the same years: births 0.31k → 0.23k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":3.99,"end":2.437,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":0.31,"end":0.227}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.48 → 1.44; births 0.04k → 0.04k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.48,"end":1.444,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.044,"end":0.039}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.68). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.963,"r_changes":0.685,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.556,"actual":1.444,"gap_pct":-7.2}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-7.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.444},"values":{"2050":1.505,"2100":1.564},"low_2100":1.064}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −2.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.04,"actual":0.039,"gap_pct":-2.5}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-2.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.04k (−10% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.02k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.039},"values":{"2050":0.035,"2100":0.022},"low_2100":0.007}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MSR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}