{"locations":[{"code":"MRT","name":"Mauritania","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MRT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.79 in 1950 → 4.70 in 2023 (−19%). Peak: 6.74 in 1977; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 2001: +0.04 → −0.05 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.791,"last":4.697,"peak":{"year":1977,"value":6.736},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.0438,"slope_after":-0.0528},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0528,"slope_after":-0.0307}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 28.3k in 1950 → 173k in 2023 (×6.1). The trend broke around 2002: change sped up (+1.84k → +3.38k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":28.31,"last":172.9,"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":1.84,"slope_after":3.38}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 45.8% in 2024 (+46 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 23% → 45%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":45.7794,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":22.967,"end":44.9563}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 6.9% in 1960 → 61.5% in 2025 (+55 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2014. The trend broke around 1988 and 2002: +1.3 → −0.13 → +1.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":6.8567,"last":61.4888,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":1.28,"slope_after":-0.125},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.125,"slope_after":1.06}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,520 PPP dollars in 1990 → 6,559 PPP dollars in 2025 (+19%). Low: 4,807 PPP dollars in 2002; +36% since then. The trend broke around 2001 and 2007: −54 → +119 → +32 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":5519.6103,"last":6559.0432,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":4806.8985},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-53.7,"slope_after":119},{"year":2007,"slope_before":119,"slope_after":31.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1992–2002: 6.13 → 5.37. Over the same years: births 85k → 104k; internet 0.4% (2002); urban share 39.2% → 38.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,350 PPP dollars → 4,807 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":6.126,"end":5.373,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":85.01,"end":103.7},{"id":"internet_users","year":2002,"value":0.3632},{"id":"urban_population","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":39.1911,"end":38.39},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":5350.118,"end":4806.8985}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 5.32 → 4.70; births 144k → 173k; internet 6.2% → 45%; urban share 49.4% → 59.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,770 PPP dollars → 6,276 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.317,"end":4.697,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":143.8,"end":172.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.2,"end":44.9563},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":49.3554,"end":59.7142},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5769.7287,"end":6276.4752}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.66). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.797,"r_changes":0.665,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.35). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.863,"r_changes":-0.349,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.812,"r_changes":0.203,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.536,"r_changes":0.161,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.688,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":37.49},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.78,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":6.08},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.467,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":13.51},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.467,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":13.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.456,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":46.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.613,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":40.34},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.039,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":25.54},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.389,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":15.53},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.392,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":15.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.576,"actual":5.0705,"gap_pct":10.81},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.272,"actual":4.697,"gap_pct":9.95}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":15.45,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.70) already around 2006: reality is 17 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.697,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2006,"years":17,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (4.70) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.697,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.14 (−33% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.14 (−55% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.64.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.697},"values":{"2050":3.136,"2100":2.135},"low_2100":1.635}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":124.168,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":26.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":158.873,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":-0.98},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140.332,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":12.11},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140.332,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":12.11},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":105.258,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":49.46},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":110.489,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":42.39},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":124.814,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":26.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":139.538,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":12.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":138.462,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":13.62},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":150.072,"actual":157.32,"gap_pct":4.83},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":158.742,"actual":172.9,"gap_pct":8.92}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":12.74,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (173k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":172.9,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (173k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":172.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 231k (+34% vs 2023), 2100 — 245k (+42% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 128k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":172.9},"values":{"2050":230.9,"2100":245.1},"low_2100":127.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MRT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}