{"locations":[{"code":"MOZ","name":"Mozambique","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MOZ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.00 in 1950 → 4.76 in 2023 (−21%). Peak: 6.70 in 1971; the latest value is 29% lower. The trend broke around 1971 and 1988: +0.04 → −0.02 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.997,"last":4.763,"peak":{"year":1971,"value":6.701},"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.0368,"slope_after":-0.0228},{"year":1988,"slope_before":-0.0228,"slope_after":-0.042}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 278k in 1950 → 1.26M in 2023 (×4.5). The trend broke around 2004: change sped up (+12.1k → +23k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":278.3,"last":1261,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":12.1,"slope_after":23}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 20.5% in 2024 (+21 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 7.8% → 19%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":20.5273,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":7.7963,"end":18.9622}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 3.6% in 1960 → 37.2% in 2025 (+34 pp). The trend broke around 1980 and 1994: +0.49 → +1.1 → +0.27 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":3.6237,"last":37.2078,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.486,"slope_after":1.05},{"year":1994,"slope_before":1.05,"slope_after":0.265}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 548 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,451 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.6). Low: 511 PPP dollars in 1992; ×2.8 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2016: +0.35 → +50 → −7.9 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":547.6228,"last":1450.9596,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":510.8228},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.352,"slope_after":49.5},{"year":2016,"slope_before":49.5,"slope_after":-7.88}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2010–2020: 5.66 → 4.96. Over the same years: births 985k → 1.19M; internet 4.2% → 14.3%; urban share 31% → 33.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,224 PPP dollars → 1,466 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":5.66,"end":4.959,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":984.5,"end":1192},{"id":"internet_users","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":4.17,"end":14.2874},{"id":"urban_population","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":30.9862,"end":33.9044},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":1224.2302,"end":1466.1248}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.858,"r_changes":0.305,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.889,"r_changes":0.226,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.25). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.885,"r_changes":-0.252,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.921,"r_changes":0.063,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.295,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":18.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.53,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":12.6},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.991,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":27.81},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.099,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":24.44},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.099,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":24.44},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.099,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":24.44},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.334,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":17.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.861,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":4.94},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.12,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":-0.37},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.143,"actual":5.101,"gap_pct":-0.82},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.478,"actual":4.763,"gap_pct":6.36}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":17.7,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.76) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.763,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (4.76, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.763,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.92 (−39% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.00 (−58% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.50.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.763},"values":{"2050":2.923,"2100":1.995},"low_2100":1.495}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":966.672,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":17.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":878.908,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":28.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":771.293,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":46.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":811.435,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":39.57},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":852.643,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":32.82},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":889.348,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":27.34},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":949.488,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":19.27},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1067.809,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":6.06},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1131.354,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":0.1},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1156.674,"actual":1132.5,"gap_pct":-2.09},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1207.858,"actual":1261,"gap_pct":4.4}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":19.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (1.26M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1261,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.26M, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1261,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.59M (+26% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.48M (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 705k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1261},"values":{"2050":1590,"2100":1477},"low_2100":704.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MOZ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}