{"locations":[{"code":"MNP","name":"Northern Mariana Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MNP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.08 in 1950 → 2.35 in 2023 (−61%). Peak: 7.74 in 1968; the latest value is 70% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1984: +0.05 → −0.37 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.08,"last":2.349,"peak":{"year":1968,"value":7.741},"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.0455,"slope_after":-0.375},{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.375,"slope_after":0.0146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.32k in 1950 → 0.58k in 2023 (+83%). Peak: 1.62k in 1993; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1985 and 1993: +0.01k → +0.13k → −0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.319,"last":0.583,"peak":{"year":1993,"value":1.619},"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.0105,"slope_after":0.128},{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.128,"slope_after":-0.0299}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990; no earlier data in this period.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1990,"first":0,"last":0}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 80.1% in 1960 → 92.2% in 2025 (+12 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1975: +0.04 → +1 → +0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":80.1486,"last":92.1765,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0356,"slope_after":1.01},{"year":1975,"slope_before":1.01,"slope_after":0.106}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1972–1982: 6.78 → 2.90. Over the same years: births 0.51k → 0.55k; urban share 86.4% → 87.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":6.776,"end":2.896,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":0.505,"end":0.549},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":86.3888,"end":87.1974}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.54 → 2.35; births 1.2k → 0.58k; urban share 91.2% → 92%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.535,"end":2.349,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.202,"end":0.583},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":91.1765,"end":91.9754}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.44).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.753,"r_changes":0.436,"effective_pairs_changes":61,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.851,"r_changes":-0.244,"effective_pairs_changes":48,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.128,"actual":2.349,"gap_pct":10.39}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":10.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.91 (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−24% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.349},"values":{"2050":1.912,"2100":1.784},"low_2100":1.284}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −4.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.61,"actual":0.583,"gap_pct":-4.43}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-4.43,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.47k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.38k (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.16k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.583},"values":{"2050":0.472,"2100":0.38},"low_2100":0.158}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MNP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}