{"locations":[{"code":"MNG","name":"Mongolia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MNG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.50 in 1950 → 2.69 in 2023 (−51%). Peak: 7.41 in 1966; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1999: +0.1 → −0.21 → +0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.503,"last":2.685,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":7.409},"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.0979,"slope_after":-0.211},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.211,"slope_after":0.0399}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 31.7k in 1950 → 65k in 2023 (+105%). Peak: 78.8k in 2015; the latest value is 17% lower. The trend broke around 1988 and 1999: +1.18k → −2.49k → +1.3k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":31.71,"last":65.02,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":78.75},"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":1.18,"slope_after":-2.49},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-2.49,"slope_after":1.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 85.1% in 2024 (+85 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 22.3% → 81.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":85.1235,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":22.2658,"end":81.6068}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 36.9% in 1960 → 71.1% in 2025 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1977. The trend broke around 1987 and 1996: +0.7 → −0.03 → +0.54 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":36.8733,"last":71.1451,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1977,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.696,"slope_after":-0.0262},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.0262,"slope_after":0.543}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,638 PPP dollars in 1990 → 17,773 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.7). Low: 5,162 PPP dollars in 1993; ×3.4 since then. The trend broke around 2003 and 2014: +29 → +674 → +332 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6637.8193,"last":17772.5342,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":5162.0999},"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":28.5,"slope_after":674},{"year":2014,"slope_before":674,"slope_after":332}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1984–1994: 5.45 → 2.82. Over the same years: births 72.5k → 56.4k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 55.3% → 56.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,214 PPP dollars (1994).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":5.451,"end":2.819,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":72.47,"end":56.39},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.0088},{"id":"urban_population","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":55.2743,"end":56.845},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1994,"value":5213.8463}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.94 → 2.69; births 77k → 65k; internet 17.7% → 83.7%; urban share 68% → 70.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,210 PPP dollars → 16,223 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.94,"end":2.685,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":76.96,"end":65.02},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17.7,"end":83.7432},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":67.9777,"end":70.4464},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13210.0946,"end":16222.8639}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.35); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.63). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.347,"r_changes":0.628,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.26); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.14).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":0.261,"r_changes":-0.137,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.40). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.856,"r_changes":0.399,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.20); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.56). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend. Changes line up best with a 1 year shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.76).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.205,"r_changes":0.563,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":true,"lag":{"years":-1,"r":0.759,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +41%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":40.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":40.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.045,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":44.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.893,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":55.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":59.55},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":59.55},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.399,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":23.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.334,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":26.47},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.538,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":16.3},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.663,"actual":2.9517,"gap_pct":10.84},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.715,"actual":2.685,"gap_pct":-1.1}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":40.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.69, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.685,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.69, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.685,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.99 (−26% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.79 (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.29.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.685},"values":{"2050":1.991,"2100":1.792},"low_2100":1.292}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +24%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.383,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":23.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":58.34,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":30},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.83,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":35.85},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.786,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":49.34},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.4,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":56.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.697,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":49.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":64.334,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":17.89},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.668,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":22.99},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.784,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":15.29},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.229,"actual":75.843,"gap_pct":9.55},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":67.343,"actual":65.02,"gap_pct":-3.45}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":23.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection expected this level (65k) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":65.02,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (65k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":65.02,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 68.7k (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 59.5k (−8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 25.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":65.02},"values":{"2050":68.65,"2100":59.51},"low_2100":25.43}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MNG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}