{"locations":[{"code":"MNE","name":"Montenegro","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MNE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.36 in 1950 → 1.80 in 2023 (−59%). Peak: 4.63 in 1951; the latest value is 61% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1986. The trend broke around 1974: change slowed down (−0.1 → −0.02 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.364,"last":1.803,"peak":{"year":1951,"value":4.626},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1986,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.0953,"slope_after":-0.019}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 12.4k in 1950 → 6.98k in 2023 (−44%). Peak: 15k in 1954; the latest value is 53% lower. The trend broke around 1956 and 1968: +0.28k → −0.25k → −0.08k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":12.36,"last":6.981,"peak":{"year":1954,"value":14.95},"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":0.279,"slope_after":-0.253},{"year":1968,"slope_before":-0.253,"slope_after":-0.0845}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 25.4% in 2004 → 88.9% in 2024 (+64 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 35.6% → 69.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2024,"first":25.3501,"last":88.8826,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":35.6115,"end":69.8816}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 24.6% in 1960 → 65.6% in 2025 (+41 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1993. The trend broke around 2008: change slowed down (+0.74 → +0.1 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":24.5712,"last":65.6085,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1993,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":0.743,"slope_after":0.102}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 14,639 PPP dollars in 1997 → 28,895 PPP dollars in 2025 (+97%). Low: 13,993 PPP dollars in 1999; +106% since then. The trend broke around 2019: change sped up (+424 → +937 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1997,"to":2025,"first":14638.7363,"last":28895.3172,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":13993.3577},"breaks":[{"year":2019,"slope_before":424,"slope_after":937}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1954–1964: 4.49 → 3.28. Over the same years: births 15k → 13.1k; urban share 28.6% (1964); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1954,"to":1964,"start":4.487,"end":3.279,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1954,"to":1964,"start":14.95,"end":13.05},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1964,"value":28.5715},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.74 → 1.80; births 7.95k → 6.98k; internet 60.3% → 88.6%; urban share 64.6% → 65.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 20,201 PPP dollars → 27,243 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.744,"end":1.803,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7.947,"end":6.981},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":60.31,"end":88.5516},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":64.6253,"end":65.4732},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20201.2916,"end":27243.4042}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.87). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.91,"r_changes":0.873,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (2004–2023, 20 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.27); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2023,"years":20,"r_levels":0.275,"r_changes":0.245,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.927,"r_changes":0.029,"effective_pairs_changes":48,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1997–2023, 27 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.14); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1997,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.139,"r_changes":-0.035,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in 6; median gap +8.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7947,"gap_pct":-2.99},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.715,"actual":1.7947,"gap_pct":4.65},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.594,"actual":1.7947,"gap_pct":12.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.641,"actual":1.7947,"gap_pct":9.37},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.655,"actual":1.7947,"gap_pct":8.44},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.657,"actual":1.7947,"gap_pct":8.31},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.67,"actual":1.803,"gap_pct":7.96}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":8.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.73 (−4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.69 (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.19.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.803},"values":{"2050":1.729,"2100":1.692},"low_2100":1.192}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in 5; median gap +4.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.742,"actual":7.4376,"gap_pct":-3.93},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.556,"actual":7.4376,"gap_pct":-1.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.124,"actual":7.4376,"gap_pct":4.4},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.919,"actual":7.4376,"gap_pct":7.5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.957,"actual":7.4376,"gap_pct":6.91},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.024,"actual":7.4376,"gap_pct":5.89},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.773,"actual":6.981,"gap_pct":3.07}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":4.4,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected today's level (6.98k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.981,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (6.98k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.981,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.04k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.46k (−65% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.62k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.981},"values":{"2050":5.041,"2100":2.46},"low_2100":0.623}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MNE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}