{"locations":[{"code":"MMR","name":"Myanmar","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MMR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.94 in 1950 → 2.12 in 2023 (−64%). The trend broke around 1970 and 1998: −0.01 → −0.11 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.943,"last":2.115,"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.00788,"slope_after":-0.108},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.108,"slope_after":-0.03}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 812k in 1950 → 904k in 2023 (+11%). Peak: 1.17M in 1984; the latest value is 23% lower. The trend broke around 1983 and 2012: +10k → −6.59k → −3.56k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":812.1,"last":903.8,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":1167},"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":10,"slope_after":-6.59},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-6.59,"slope_after":-3.56}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 45.4% in 2020 (+45 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 10.9% → 45.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2020,"first":0,"last":45.4477,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":10.9,"end":45.4477}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 19% in 1960 → 30.6% in 2025 (+12 pp). The trend broke around 1968: change slowed down (+0.48 → +0.15 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":18.9945,"last":30.5837,"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.479,"slope_after":0.147}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 775 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,137 PPP dollars in 2025 (×6.6). Peak: 6,563 PPP dollars in 2019; the latest value is 22% lower. The trend broke around 2002 and 2018: +71 → +293 → −169 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":775.3283,"last":5137.1005,"peak":{"year":2019,"value":6562.989},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":70.5,"slope_after":293},{"year":2018,"slope_before":293,"slope_after":-169}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1983–1993: 4.63 → 3.28. Over the same years: births 1.16M → 1.09M; urban share 24.8% → 26.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 859 PPP dollars (1993); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":4.633,"end":3.281,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":1159,"end":1085},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":24.837,"end":26.3005},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1993,"value":859.3455}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.26 → 2.12; births 939k → 904k; internet 1.8% (2013); urban share 29.5% → 30.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,667 PPP dollars → 5,364 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.264,"end":2.115,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":939.1,"end":903.8},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":1.8},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.5104,"end":30.3821},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4666.9538,"end":5364.138}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.15); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.60). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.149,"r_changes":0.603,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2020, 22 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.48); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.28).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2020,"years":22,"r_levels":-0.479,"r_changes":-0.281,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.59). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.959,"r_changes":0.589,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.22). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.902,"r_changes":0.219,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +6.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":6.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":6.46},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.172,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":2.93},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":20.85},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":20.85},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.113,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":5.81},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.826,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":22.44},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.856,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":20.46},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.134,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":4.77},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.183,"actual":2.2357,"gap_pct":2.41},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.117,"actual":2.115,"gap_pct":-0.09}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":6.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.12) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.115,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.12, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.115,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.83 (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.73 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.23.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.115},"values":{"2050":1.828,"2100":1.728},"low_2100":1.228}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +0.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":902.385,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":4.72},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1012.149,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":-6.63},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1046.549,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":-9.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":903.677,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":4.57},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":818.688,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":15.43},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":947.377,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":-0.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":780.308,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":21.11},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":883.78,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":6.93},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":940.16,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":0.52},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":942.393,"actual":945.02,"gap_pct":0.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":910.042,"actual":903.8,"gap_pct":-0.69}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":0.52,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (904k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":903.8,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (904k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":903.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 732k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 486k (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 171k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":903.8},"values":{"2050":732.3,"2100":486.2},"low_2100":171.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MMR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}