{"locations":[{"code":"MLT","name":"Malta","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MLT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.23 in 1950 → 1.10 in 2023 (−74%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1978, below 1.5 since 2001. The trend broke around 1960 and 1966: −0.08 → −0.21 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.226,"last":1.098,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1978,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2001,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":-0.0759,"slope_after":-0.209},{"year":1966,"slope_before":-0.209,"slope_after":-0.0198}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 8.67k in 1950 → 4.21k in 2023 (−51%). Peak: 9.47k in 1956; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1959 and 1965: +0.01k → −0.47k → −0.04k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.673,"last":4.213,"peak":{"year":1956,"value":9.474},"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.00853,"slope_after":-0.473},{"year":1965,"slope_before":-0.473,"slope_after":-0.0404}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.9% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2008, above 90% since 2022. Fastest growth in 2000–2005: 13.1% → 41.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.8603,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2000,"to":2005,"start":13.1137,"end":41.24}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 90.1% in 1960 → 95.7% in 2025 (+5.6 pp). The trend broke around 1985 and 1995: −0.01 → +0.32 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":90.1256,"last":95.6806,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.00521,"slope_after":0.324},{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.324,"slope_after":0.0963}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 18,208 PPP dollars in 1990 → 63,656 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.5). The trend broke around 2012: change sped up (+1,003 → +1,833 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":18208.1056,"last":63655.5161,"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":1000,"slope_after":1830}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1956–1966: 4.03 → 2.28. Over the same years: births 9.47k → 5.48k; urban share 89.4% (1966); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1956,"to":1966,"start":4.031,"end":2.284,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1956,"to":1966,"start":9.474,"end":5.475},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1966,"value":89.4001},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.37 → 1.10; births 4.07k → 4.21k; internet 68.9% → 92.1%; urban share 94.4% → 95.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 40,921 PPP dollars → 60,460 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.366,"end":1.098,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.067,"end":4.213},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.9138,"end":92.0727},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":94.3907,"end":95.6272},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":40921.3168,"end":60459.7655}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.93). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.97,"r_changes":0.932,"effective_pairs_changes":47,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.907,"r_changes":-0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.785,"r_changes":0.252,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.919,"r_changes":-0.051,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-34.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.733,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-27.67},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.727,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-27.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.603,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-21.8},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.445,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-13.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.335,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-6.1},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.288,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-2.68},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.367,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-8.3},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.488,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-15.76},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.475,"actual":1.2535,"gap_pct":-15.02},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.215,"actual":1.098,"gap_pct":-9.63}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.02,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.26 (+14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.41 (+28% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.91.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.098},"values":{"2050":1.257,"2100":1.41},"low_2100":0.91}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.081,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":-15.74},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.662,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":-8.17},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.659,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":-8.11},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.508,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":-5.04},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.234,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":1.11},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.911,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":9.46},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.789,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":12.98},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.92,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":9.21},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.787,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":13.04},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.292,"actual":4.281,"gap_pct":-0.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.863,"actual":4.213,"gap_pct":-13.37}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (4.21k, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.213,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.21k, 2023) only around 2033: reality is 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.213,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2033,"years":10,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.37k (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.24k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.77k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.213},"values":{"2050":3.374,"2100":2.237},"low_2100":0.773}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MLT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}