{"locations":[{"code":"MLI","name":"Mali","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MLI/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.87 in 1950 → 5.61 in 2023 (−18%). Peak: 7.37 in 1980; the latest value is 24% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 2015: +0.01 → −0.03 → −0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.873,"last":5.614,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":7.365},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.0138,"slope_after":-0.0342},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-0.0342,"slope_after":-0.101}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 244k in 1950 → 951k in 2023 (×3.9). The trend broke around 1995: change sped up (+5.94k → +17.6k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":244,"last":951.4,"breaks":[{"year":1995,"slope_before":5.94,"slope_after":17.6}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 36.8% in 2024 (+37 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 14% → 34%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":36.8015,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":14,"end":33.9565}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 7% in 1960 → 32.2% in 2025 (+25 pp). The trend broke around 2005: change sped up (+0.25 → +0.58 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":7.0225,"last":32.2127,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.249,"slope_after":0.58}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,891 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,993 PPP dollars in 2025 (+58%). The trend broke around 2003: change slowed down (+45 → +21 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1890.5021,"last":2993.2517,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":45.1,"slope_after":20.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 6.49 → 5.61. Over the same years: births 794k → 951k; internet 3.5% → 36%; urban share 24.7% → 31%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,529 PPP dollars → 2,861 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.491,"end":5.614,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":793.7,"end":951.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.5,"end":36.0388},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24.7034,"end":31.0032},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2528.5301,"end":2861.4806}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.84,"r_changes":0.539,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 2 years shift: \"Internet\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = −0.69).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.937,"r_changes":-0.202,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-2,"r":-0.693,"leader":"internet_users"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.85,"r_changes":-0.091,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.905,"r_changes":-0.148,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.48,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":37.04},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.85,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":4.95},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.932,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":3.5},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.799,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":5.87},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.556,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":10.5},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.737,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":29.61},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.776,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":6.29},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.705,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":-8.43},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.92,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":3.71},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.922,"actual":6.1395,"gap_pct":3.67},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":5.787,"actual":5.614,"gap_pct":-2.99}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":4.95,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (5.61) already around 2006: reality is 17 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":5.614,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2006,"years":17,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (5.61, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":5.614,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.37 (−40% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.09 (−63% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.59.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":5.614},"values":{"2050":3.365,"2100":2.085},"low_2100":1.585}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +6.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":647.178,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":32.85},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":808.715,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":6.31},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":900.322,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":-4.5},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":846.928,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":1.52},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":710.5,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":21.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":595.343,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":44.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":815.828,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":5.39},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":805.76,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":6.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":788.23,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":9.08},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":788.719,"actual":859.77,"gap_pct":9.01},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":952.503,"actual":951.4,"gap_pct":-0.12}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":6.7,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (951k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":951.4,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (951k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":951.4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.27M (+34% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.2M (+26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 610k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":951.4},"values":{"2050":1273,"2100":1197},"low_2100":609.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MLI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}