{"locations":[{"code":"MKD","name":"North Macedonia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MKD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.14 in 1950 → 1.47 in 2023 (−71%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1996, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1956 and 1979: −0.18 → −0.07 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.138,"last":1.465,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1996,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":-0.18,"slope_after":-0.0743},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0743,"slope_after":-0.0206}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 47k in 1950 → 16.9k in 2023 (−64%). The trend broke around 1992 and 1999: −0.21k → −1.24k → −0.38k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":46.99,"last":16.88,"breaks":[{"year":1992,"slope_before":-0.214,"slope_after":-1.24},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-1.24,"slope_after":-0.377}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.1% in 2025 (+93 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2009, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2006–2011: 28.6% → 56.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":93.1,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2006,"to":2011,"start":28.62,"end":56.7}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34% in 1960 → 62.9% in 2025 (+29 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1974. The trend broke around 1971 and 1989: +1.4 → +0.47 → +0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.0075,"last":62.891,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1974,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":1.37,"slope_after":0.475},{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.475,"slope_after":0.0928}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,904 PPP dollars in 1990 → 25,095 PPP dollars in 2025 (+94%). Low: 10,501 PPP dollars in 1995; +139% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2003: −350 → +313 → +552 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12904.4868,"last":25094.6225,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":10501.0888},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-350,"slope_after":313},{"year":2003,"slope_before":313,"slope_after":552}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1951–1961: 4.97 → 3.62. Over the same years: births 47.1k → 42.5k; urban share 35.2% (1961); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1951,"to":1961,"start":4.97,"end":3.615,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1951,"to":1961,"start":47.13,"end":42.53},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1961,"value":35.2072},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.71 → 1.47; births 24.5k → 16.9k; internet 65.2% → 88.5%; urban share 58.6% → 62.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,758 PPP dollars → 23,455 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.705,"end":1.465,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24.53,"end":16.88},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":65.24,"end":88.5},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":58.5787,"end":62.2518},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17758.2276,"end":23455.2221}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.85); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.91). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.853,"r_changes":0.908,"effective_pairs_changes":61,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.547,"r_changes":0.17,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.942,"r_changes":-0.024,"effective_pairs_changes":49,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.57); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.574,"r_changes":0.004,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.91,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":-10.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.399,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":22.74},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.88,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":-8.66},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.586,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":8.27},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.433,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":19.83},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.515,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":13.34},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.366,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":25.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.428,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":20.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.553,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":10.57},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.546,"actual":1.7171,"gap_pct":11.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.379,"actual":1.465,"gap_pct":6.24}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":11.07,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.465},"values":{"2050":1.513,"2100":1.555},"low_2100":1.055}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −1.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.203,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":-19.93},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.956,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":7.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":27.751,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":-18.62},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":22.938,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":-1.55},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.521,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":10.05},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":22.082,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":2.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.416,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":10.61},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21.705,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":4.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":23.265,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":-2.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":23.349,"actual":22.583,"gap_pct":-3.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":19.769,"actual":16.88,"gap_pct":-14.61}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-1.55,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (16.9k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":16.88,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (16.9k, 2023) only around 2039: reality is 16 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":16.88,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2039,"years":16,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 12.4k (−27% vs 2023), 2100 — 5.75k (−66% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.36k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":16.88},"values":{"2050":12.39,"2100":5.748},"low_2100":1.364}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MKD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}