{"locations":[{"code":"MHL","name":"Marshall Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MHL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.76 in 1950 → 2.92 in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 8.20 in 1966; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1974: direction reversed (+0.01 → −0.14 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.756,"last":2.919,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":8.199},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.0132,"slope_after":-0.139}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.61k in 1950 → 0.82k in 2023 (+36%). Peak: 1.94k in 2003; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2005: +0.04k → 0k → −0.06k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.605,"last":0.821,"peak":{"year":2003,"value":1.941},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.0384,"slope_after":0.00304},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.00304,"slope_after":-0.064}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 65.9% in 2024 (+66 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 19.3% → 56.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":65.9158,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":19.2824,"end":56.4191}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34.8% in 1960 → 79.1% in 2025 (+44 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1969, above 75% since 2014. The trend broke around 1966 and 1972: +1.5 → +2.6 → +0.38 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.8339,"last":79.1055,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1969,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":1.46,"slope_after":2.6},{"year":1972,"slope_before":2.6,"slope_after":0.376}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,906 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,660 PPP dollars in 2025 (+96%). Low: 3,719 PPP dollars in 1999; +106% since then. The trend broke around 2012: change sped up (+1.7 → +272 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3906.0863,"last":7660.377,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":3719.2876},"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":1.69,"slope_after":272}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 6.87 → 5.09. Over the same years: births 1.82k → 1.86k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 64% → 67.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,704 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":6.866,"end":5.091,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":1.82,"end":1.86},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":63.9985,"end":67.5398},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":4704.0357}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.25 → 2.92; births 1.34k → 0.82k; internet 14% → 64.1%; urban share 74.7% → 78.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,470 PPP dollars → 6,775 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.247,"end":2.919,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.338,"end":0.821},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14,"end":64.0759},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":74.6791,"end":78.3594},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4470.4263,"end":6774.7827}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.41); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.23).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.41,"r_changes":-0.234,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.767,"r_changes":0.143,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.865,"r_changes":0.376,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.69); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.687,"r_changes":-0.191,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.638,"actual":2.919,"gap_pct":10.65}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":10.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.11 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.75 (−40% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.25.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.919},"values":{"2050":2.114,"2100":1.754},"low_2100":1.254}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +7.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.762,"actual":0.821,"gap_pct":7.74}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":7.74,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.44k (−46% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.26k (−68% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.09k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.821},"values":{"2050":0.44,"2100":0.263},"low_2100":0.085}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MHL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}