{"locations":[{"code":"MDV","name":"Maldives","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MDV/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.18 in 1950 → 1.58 in 2023 (−75%). Peak: 7.40 in 1973; the latest value is 79% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2014. The trend broke around 1985 and 2000: +0.03 → −0.33 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.183,"last":1.575,"peak":{"year":1973,"value":7.399},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.033,"slope_after":-0.326},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.326,"slope_after":-0.0458}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.02k in 1950 → 5.8k in 2023 (+92%). Peak: 9.34k in 1989; the latest value is 38% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1999: +0.16k → −0.37k → +0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.021,"last":5.795,"peak":{"year":1989,"value":9.34},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.164,"slope_after":-0.374},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.374,"slope_after":0.0301}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 85.2% in 2024 (+85 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 49.3% → 77.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":85.24,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":49.28,"end":77.4697}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 11.4% in 1960 → 42.5% in 2025 (+31 pp). The trend broke around 1970 and 1977: 0 → +1.2 → +0.47 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":11.3651,"last":42.5062,"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.000321,"slope_after":1.23},{"year":1977,"slope_before":1.23,"slope_after":0.466}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,946 PPP dollars in 1990 → 24,401 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.7).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8945.8048,"last":24401.3159}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1989–1999: 6.39 → 2.90. Over the same years: births 9.34k → 5.89k; internet 0% → 1.1%; urban share 25.8% → 27%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,946 PPP dollars → 13,449 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":6.386,"end":2.899,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":9.34,"end":5.887},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":0,"end":1.12},{"id":"urban_population","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":25.8472,"end":27.0011},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":8945.8048,"end":13449.2027}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.17 → 1.58; births 7.52k → 5.8k; internet 44.1% → 84.6%; urban share 37.8% → 41.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,987 PPP dollars → 22,333 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.174,"end":1.575,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7.523,"end":5.795},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":44.1,"end":84.5529},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":37.8257,"end":41.5097},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17986.8907,"end":22333.0477}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.03); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.74).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.03,"r_changes":0.742,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.679,"r_changes":0.292,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.884,"r_changes":0.233,"effective_pairs_changes":3,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.874,"r_changes":-0.027,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-40.93},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.059,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-56.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.691,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-51.99},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.97,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-40.33},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.337,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-24.17},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.873,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-5.39},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.492,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":18.77},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.07,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-14.39},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.984,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-10.68},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.025,"actual":1.7721,"gap_pct":-12.49},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.666,"actual":1.575,"gap_pct":-5.46}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-14.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (1.58, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.575,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.58, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.575,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.54 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.58 (0% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.575},"values":{"2050":1.537,"2100":1.581},"low_2100":1.081}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.712,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-39.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.566,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-55.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.342,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-51.22},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.017,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-40.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.922,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-17.85},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.377,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":2.05},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.118,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":27.16},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.155,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-9.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.301,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-10.86},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.581,"actual":6.5078,"gap_pct":-14.16},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.875,"actual":5.795,"gap_pct":-15.71}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-15.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (5.8k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":5.795,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (5.8k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":5.795,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 5.28k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 4.22k (−27% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.74k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":5.795},"values":{"2050":5.284,"2100":4.221},"low_2100":1.739}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MDV&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}