{"locations":[{"code":"MDG","name":"Madagascar","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MDG/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.43 in 1950 → 3.97 in 2023 (−47%). The trend broke around 1976: change sped up (−0.02 → −0.05 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.431,"last":3.972,"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.0204,"slope_after":-0.0526}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 197k in 1950 → 1M in 2023 (×5.1).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":196.9,"last":1001}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 18.7% in 2024 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 6.4% → 17.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":18.6779,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":6.406,"end":17.8117}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 10.8% in 1960 → 32.9% in 2025 (+22 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":10.8402,"last":32.9017}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,968 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,668 PPP dollars in 2025 (−15%). Low: 1,486 PPP dollars in 2002; +12% since then. The trend broke around 1996: change slowed down (−37 → −0.5 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1968.2724,"last":1668.477,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":1486.4343},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-36.8,"slope_after":-0.496}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1998–2008: 5.99 → 5.04. Over the same years: births 683k → 785k; internet 0.1% → 1.7%; urban share 24.4% → 27.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,659 PPP dollars → 1,794 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":5.992,"end":5.043,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":682.7,"end":785.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":0.0626,"end":1.65},{"id":"urban_population","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":24.405,"end":27.3183},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":1658.8885,"end":1794.4024}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.53 → 3.97; births 836k → 1M; internet 3% → 18.2%; urban share 28.7% → 32%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,611 PPP dollars → 1,630 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.527,"end":3.972,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":835.9,"end":1001},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3,"end":18.2408},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28.6605,"end":31.9799},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1610.6023,"end":1629.6055}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.987,"r_changes":0.817,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.781,"r_changes":0.125,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.966,"r_changes":0.176,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.46); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.461,"r_changes":-0.043,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +3.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.64,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":16.83},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.42,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":-3.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.235,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.891,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":9.3},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.785,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":12.36},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.785,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":12.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.185,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":1.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.209,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":1.04},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.208,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":1.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.109,"actual":4.2527,"gap_pct":3.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.734,"actual":3.972,"gap_pct":6.37}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":3.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.97) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.972,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (3.97) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.972,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.82 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.06 (−48% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.56.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.972},"values":{"2050":2.816,"2100":2.056},"low_2100":1.556}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +7.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":726.186,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":25.64},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":895.741,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":1.86},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":858.438,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":6.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":798.205,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":14.31},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":788.84,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":15.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":749.251,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":21.77},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":850.176,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":7.32},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":872.431,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":4.58},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":874.471,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":4.34},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":852.114,"actual":912.4,"gap_pct":7.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":918.152,"actual":1001,"gap_pct":9.02}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":7.32,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (1M, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1001,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1M, 2023) only around 2033: reality is 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1001,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2033,"years":10,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.22M (+22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.22M (+22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 590k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1001},"values":{"2050":1217,"2100":1219},"low_2100":589.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MDG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}