{"locations":[{"code":"MDA","name":"Moldova","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MDA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.49 in 1950 → 1.73 in 2023 (−50%). Low: 1.45 in 2002; +20% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1994. The trend broke around 1991 and 2000: −0.03 → −0.08 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.486,"last":1.731,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":1.448},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1994,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.029,"slope_after":-0.0828},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.0828,"slope_after":0.0159}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 79.4k in 1950 → 33k in 2023 (−58%). Peak: 102k in 1987; the latest value is 68% lower. The trend broke around 1988 and 1996: +0.32k → −4.06k → −0.71k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":79.37,"last":32.99,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":101.9},"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.318,"slope_after":-4.06},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-4.06,"slope_after":-0.71}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 77.4% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 27.5% → 67%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":77.3688,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":27.5,"end":67}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23.2% in 1960 → 43.7% in 2025 (+21 pp). The trend broke around 1990 and 2004: +0.82 → −0.7 → +0.21 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.2204,"last":43.7336,"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.823,"slope_after":-0.702},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.702,"slope_after":0.205}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 15,903 PPP dollars in 1990 → 17,087 PPP dollars in 2025 (+7%). Low: 5,597 PPP dollars in 1999; ×3.1 since then. The trend broke around 1996: direction reversed (−1,619 → +356 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":15902.8943,"last":17087.1874,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":5597.4651},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-1620,"slope_after":356}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1986–1996: 2.74 → 1.71. Over the same years: births 101k → 56.7k; internet 0% (1996); urban share 44.3% → 45.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,063 PPP dollars (1996).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":2.738,"end":1.709,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":101.4,"end":56.72},{"id":"internet_users","year":1996,"value":0.0046},{"id":"urban_population","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":44.2833,"end":45.0868},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1996,"value":6063.1405}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.62 → 1.73; births 47k → 33k; internet 37.4% → 76.5%; urban share 39.4% → 43%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,080 PPP dollars → 15,981 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.622,"end":1.731,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":47.02,"end":32.99},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":37.44,"end":76.5033},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.4276,"end":43.0012},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11080.0635,"end":15980.5669}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.80); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.801,"r_changes":0.94,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.23); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.63). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":0.228,"r_changes":0.625,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.51); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.33).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.511,"r_changes":0.327,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.45); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). Changes line up best with a 8 years shift: \"Fertility (TFR)\" moves first, then \"GDP per person (PPP)\" (r = −0.59).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.449,"r_changes":0.15,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":8,"r":-0.585,"leader":"tfr"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.798,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":1.33},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.429,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":27.5},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.4,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":30.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.318,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":38.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.475,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":23.53},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.575,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":15.68},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.435,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":26.97},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":24.97},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.229,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":48.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.23,"actual":1.822,"gap_pct":48.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.797,"actual":1.731,"gap_pct":-3.67}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":26.97,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (1.73, 2023) only around 2036: reality is 13 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.731,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2036,"years":13,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (1.73, 2023) only around 2048: reality is 25 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.731,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2048,"years":25,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.70 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.731},"values":{"2050":1.695,"2100":1.672},"low_2100":1.172}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +4.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":58.58,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":-25.95},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":45.565,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":-4.8},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.372,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":-2.24},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.629,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":4.2},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":42.416,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":2.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.481,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":4.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.808,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":14.73},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":38.335,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":13.15},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":40.715,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":6.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":40.322,"actual":43.377,"gap_pct":7.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":49.667,"actual":32.99,"gap_pct":-33.58}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":4.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (33k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":32.99,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (33k, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":32.99,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 25.6k (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 12.6k (−62% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.45k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":32.99},"values":{"2050":25.57,"2100":12.61},"low_2100":3.449}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MDA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}