{"locations":[{"code":"MCO","name":"Monaco","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MCO/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.06 in 1950 → 2.11 in 2023 (−31%). Low: 1.75 in 1993; +21% since then. The trend broke around 1994 and 2017: −0.03 → +0.03 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.058,"last":2.11,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":1.749},"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":-0.0302,"slope_after":0.0319},{"year":2017,"slope_before":0.0319,"slope_after":-0.0754}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.4k in 1950 → 0.37k in 2023 (−7%). Peak: 0.42k in 1951; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1974: −0.01k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.395,"last":0.368,"peak":{"year":1951,"value":0.422},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":-0.00507,"slope_after":0.0026},{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.0026,"slope_after":-0.000629}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 99% in 2024 (+99 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2004, above 90% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 67.3% → 90.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":99.0449,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":67.25,"end":90.7}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1982–1992: 2.20 → 1.76. Over the same years: births 0.4k → 0.34k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":2.203,"end":1.755,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":0.398,"end":0.343},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":100,"end":100}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.31 → 2.11; births 0.36k → 0.37k; internet 90.7% → 98.9%; urban share 100% → 100%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.312,"end":2.11,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.359,"end":0.368},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":90.7,"end":98.8705},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.39); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.85). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.387,"r_changes":0.847,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.69); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":0.691,"r_changes":0.194,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +1.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.079,"actual":2.11,"gap_pct":1.49}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":1.49,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.96 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.11},"values":{"2050":1.96,"2100":1.84},"low_2100":1.34}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.323,"actual":0.368,"gap_pct":13.93}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":13.93,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.37k, 2023) only around 2035: reality is 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.368,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"years":12,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.42k (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.5k (+37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.25k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.368},"values":{"2050":0.423,"2100":0.504},"low_2100":0.252}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MCO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}