{"locations":[{"code":"MAR","name":"Morocco","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MAR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.14 in 1950 → 1.97 in 2024 (−68%). Peak: 7.05 in 1962; the latest value is 72% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2024. The trend broke around 1969 and 2000: +0.04 → −0.14 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":6.14,"last":1.97,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":7.046},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0422,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.0227}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 436k in 1950 → 630k in 2023 (+45%). Peak: 788k in 1982; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1982 and 1997: +10.1k → −8.43k → −0.1k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":435.6,"last":629.8,"peak":{"year":1982,"value":788},"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":10.1,"slope_after":-8.43},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-8.43,"slope_after":-0.0957}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 91.2% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2012, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 15.1% → 52%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":91.2,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":15.0844,"end":52}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 29.4% in 1960 → 63.1% in 2025 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1993. The trend broke around 1994: change slowed down (+0.72 → +0.41 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":29.3546,"last":63.1279,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1993,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.723,"slope_after":0.414}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,419 PPP dollars in 1990 → 9,495 PPP dollars in 2025 (+115%). The trend broke around 1999 and 2013: +63 → +207 → +111 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4418.6602,"last":9495.4053,"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":62.8,"slope_after":207},{"year":2013,"slope_before":207,"slope_after":111}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1983–1993: 5.41 → 3.55. Over the same years: births 785k → 693k; urban share 43.3% → 50.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,380 PPP dollars (1993); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":5.41,"end":3.548,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":784.7,"end":692.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":43.2884,"end":50.4392},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1993,"value":4379.7642}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 2.43 → 1.97; births 677k → 630k; internet 56.8% → 91.2%; urban share 60.3% → 62.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 7,952 PPP dollars → 9,163 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":2.425,"end":1.97,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2023,"start":676.8,"end":629.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":56.7746,"end":91.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":60.303,"end":62.7998},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":7951.7983,"end":9162.7471}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.25); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.72). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.246,"r_changes":0.722,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.755,"r_changes":0.357,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.43). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.985,"r_changes":-0.426,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 4 years shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.60).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.858,"r_changes":0.141,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-4,"r":0.597,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +4.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":12.68},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":12.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.271,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":4.19},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.302,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":2.79},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.158,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":9.65},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.158,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":9.65},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.029,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":16.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.563,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":-7.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.381,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":-0.62},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.425,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":-2.42},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":2.243,"actual":1.97,"gap_pct":-12.17}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":4.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.97, 2024) only around 2035: reality is 11 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.97,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"years":11,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.97, 2024) only around 2043: reality is 19 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.97,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2043,"years":19,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.87 (−5% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.74 (−12% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.97},"values":{"2050":1.865,"2100":1.736},"low_2100":1.236}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":618.973,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":7.74},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":672.606,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-0.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":687.671,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-3.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":697.053,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-4.33},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":645.146,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":3.37},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":645.146,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":3.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":590.699,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":12.89},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":706.192,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-5.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":676.682,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-1.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":689.039,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-3.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":637.479,"actual":629.8,"gap_pct":-1.2}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-1.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (630k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":629.8,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (630k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":629.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 531k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 334k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 113k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":629.8},"values":{"2050":530.5,"2100":333.7},"low_2100":113}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MAR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}