{"locations":[{"code":"MAF","name":"Saint Martin (French)","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MAF/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.49 in 1950 → 2.72 in 2023 (−58%). Low: 2.40 in 2010; +13% since then. The trend broke around 1970 and 1985: −0.01 → −0.23 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.488,"last":2.718,"trough":{"year":2010,"value":2.4},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.0141,"slope_after":-0.23},{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.23,"slope_after":-0.00247}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.14k in 1950 → 0.47k in 2023 (×3.3). Peak: 0.91k in 1990; the latest value is 48% lower. The trend broke around 1983 and 1989: 0k → +0.1k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.142,"last":0.47,"peak":{"year":1990,"value":0.907},"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.00481,"slope_after":0.098},{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.098,"slope_after":-0.0078}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1973–1983: 5.64 → 3.15. Over the same years: births 0.24k → 0.32k; urban share 100% → 100%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":5.638,"end":3.15,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":0.244,"end":0.317},{"id":"urban_population","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":100,"end":100}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.72 → 2.72; births 0.79k → 0.47k; urban share 100% → 100%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.719,"end":2.718,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.785,"end":0.47},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.898,"r_changes":0.094,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.359,"actual":2.718,"gap_pct":15.22}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":15.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.05 (−25% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.80 (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.30.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.718},"values":{"2050":2.047,"2100":1.8},"low_2100":1.3}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +6.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.44,"actual":0.47,"gap_pct":6.82}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":6.82,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.27k (−42% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.18k (−62% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.08k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.47},"values":{"2050":0.273,"2100":0.177},"low_2100":0.078}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MAF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}