{"locations":[{"code":"MAC","name":"Macao","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/MAC/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.55 in 1950 → 0.66 in 2023 (−88%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1987, below 1.5 since 1993, below 1.0 since 2018. The trend broke around 1961 and 1970: −0.07 → −0.31 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.554,"last":0.662,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1987,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1993,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":-0.0714,"slope_after":-0.312},{"year":1970,"slope_before":-0.312,"slope_after":-0.024}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 9.36k in 1950 → 4.52k in 2023 (−52%). Low: 0.78k in 1974; ×5.8 since then. The trend broke around 1976 and 1984: −0.33k → +0.67k → −0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":9.36,"last":4.515,"trough":{"year":1974,"value":0.779},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.327,"slope_after":0.67},{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.67,"slope_after":-0.0271}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.8% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2009. Fastest growth in 2001–2006: 22.5% → 46.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.8264,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2001,"to":2006,"start":22.5212,"end":46.4}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 95.3% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+4.7 pp). The trend broke around 1993: change slowed down (+0.11 → 0 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":95.2507,"last":100,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.115,"slope_after":0.00211}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 55,301 PPP dollars in 1990 → 117,098 PPP dollars in 2025 (+112%). Peak: 174,570 PPP dollars in 2013; the latest value is 33% lower. The trend broke around 2002 and 2012: −116 → +9,816 → −5,541 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":55300.7443,"last":117098.2748,"peak":{"year":2013,"value":174569.5232},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":-116,"slope_after":9820},{"year":2012,"slope_before":9820,"slope_after":-5540}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1960–1970: 4.96 → 2.08. Over the same years: births 5.78k → 2.64k; urban share 95.3% → 97%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":4.957,"end":2.083,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":5.778,"end":2.641},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":95.2507,"end":97.0131},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.15 → 0.66; births 6.72k → 4.52k; internet 65.8% → 89.8%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 174,570 PPP dollars → 104,815 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.15,"end":0.662,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.717,"end":4.515},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":65.8,"end":89.8264},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":174569.5232,"end":104815.2}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.43); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.433,"r_changes":0.55,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.47); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.474,"r_changes":0.174,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.902,"r_changes":-0.13,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.11); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.115,"r_changes":0.34,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −22%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.59,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-36.9},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.21,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-17.08},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.3,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-22.82},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.04,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-3.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.005,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-0.17},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.055,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-4.9},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.29,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-22.22},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.187,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-15.48},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.339,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-25.07},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.347,"actual":1.0033,"gap_pct":-25.52},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.13,"actual":0.662,"gap_pct":-41.42}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-22.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.91 (+37% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.15 (+74% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.65.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.662},"values":{"2050":0.907,"2100":1.154},"low_2100":0.654}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.65,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":13.98},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.582,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":40.55},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.129,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":25.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.225,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":52.42},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.174,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":54.29},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.907,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":31.24},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.587,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":-2.23},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.378,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":0.97},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.156,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":-10.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.639,"actual":6.4399,"gap_pct":-15.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7.002,"actual":4.515,"gap_pct":-35.52}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":13.98,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (4.52k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.515,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (4.52k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.515,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.24k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.52k (−66% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.38k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.515},"values":{"2050":3.242,"2100":1.515},"low_2100":0.377}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=MAC&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}